July 4,
2017
Healthy Housing Rental Vacancy Rate Prevails in Burlington
...the
rental vacancy rate continues upward and may already be in
“glut” territory of 6 to 7 percent
A July
snapshot count of online available Burlington housing rentals totaled
344, more than double a similar July 2016 survey finding of 129
vacant available rentals. This 344 July number alone represents a
rental vacancy rate of 3.5% using the base of 2010 rentals, well
within a “healthy” rental housing market range of 3-5%.
The
latest snapshot survey reveals apartment prices fairly stable over
the past year while all bedroom sizes except studio (they increased
from 14 to 24) available vacancies more than doubled (Table 1) in the
past 12 months. While median rents increased somewhat over the past
year, the number of units available today below the 2016 median rents
increased substantially. The 344 survey units represent only part of
the available rentals which may easily exceed 500 or 600 with an
actual rental vacancy rate of 6% to 7%. Larger apartment complexes,
particularly those which are now opening—like the former orphanage
Liberty House of 65 units on North Avenue—are tabulated with as
little as one or two vacancies. The overall project of Cambrian Rise
development of 733 mostly apartments, including Liberty House, on
lands once owned by the Vermont Catholic Archdiocese is equal to
about 7% of the entire Burlington 2010 rental inventory of 9,800.
The
January private comprehensive survey by Allen Brooks found Chittenden
County's rental vacancy rate of 4.4%, well within the range of
“healthy,” 3-5%. The July snapshot survey indicates the current
Burlington vacancy rate may be above of the “healthy” maximum
which places financial strains on landlord, especially those with a
few rentals. The Allen and Brooks January survey predicted a
stabilization of rental prices and increasing vacancies in 2017, and
the new snapshot survey supports those comments. With a healthy
vacancy rate those seeking to rent obtain a reasonable choice and
landlords do have to consider the market when pricing apartments. A
“glut” occurs when a surplus supply of apartments force landlords
to reduce rents below what it costs to operate and maintain, thereby
leading to a decline in the condition and quality of the rental
inventory.
With
Burlington built or well into development about 2,500 apartments
since 2013, a glut of vacant apartments--6% or more if the July data
is any indicator--becomes a surprising problem after over two decades
when vacancy rates seldom rose over 2.5% and rarely reached the
healthy 3-5% vacancy level—and never a rental glut. (Note the 2,500
number does not include 274 housing units proposed in Burlington Town
Center [BTC] re-development.)
The snapshot survey data is tabulated
directly from Craigslist and other online services. From the 2010
Census, Burlington rental inventory totaled 9,800, 12% of the State
rental housing. One major project renting this summer is the
Cambrian Rise “Liberty House” with 65 studio and one-bedroom
apartments in the former Catholic orphanage building on North Avenue.
Clearly the June and July period is a very busy rental season and a
firmer picture can be provided in a similar survey done in October
when student rentals are fully reflected and apartment turnovers are
relatively low.
Table
1
Comparison
of July 2016 and July 2017 Burlington Snapshot Surveys
of
Online Listings of Rental Apartments and Homes
Bedrooms Number for Rent Price Range Median
(Middle) Price
2016
2017 2017 2016 2017 % Change
0
(studio) 14 24 $725-$1,285 $968 $962 -0.6
1 38 102 $700-$2,200 $1,050 $1,150 9.5
2 43 135 $895-$3,350 $1,350 $1,450 6.9
3 26 53 $600-$3,333 $1,825 $1,975 8.2
4
or more 8 30 $1,900-$3,900 $2,400 $2,633 9.7
Total 129 344
.
The
April to July snapshot survey comparison, Table 2, confirms a pattern
of stable median rents when increasing numbers of rentals considered.
Four snapshot rental surveys—July and October 2016, and April and
July 2017—show a continuing increase in online listings.
Table 2
Comparison
of April 2017 and July 2017 Burlington Snapshot Surveys
of
Online Listings of Rental Apartments: Numbers and Median Rents
By
Bedroom Size
Bedrooms
For Rent Number Median
(Middle) Price
April July April July
0
(studio) 13 24 $1,100 $962
1 81 102 $1,140 $1,150
2 86 135 $1,495 $1,450
3 42 53 $2,175 $1,975
4
or more 28 30 $2,650 $2,633
Total 250 344
The
snapshot surveys began in conjunction with the Coalition for a
Livable City efforts to reduce and re-imagine the BTC re-development,
questioning both the need for a large slug of downtown housing and
the myth that BTC $1,000 one-bedroom apartments responded either to
market need or were, as promoted, “affordable” much less
providing “livable rents” or “shelter security.”
Several factors can account for
increases Burlington and Chittenden County rental vacancies. The
impact of a net increase of 300 students being housed this fall at
the new UVM dormitory and 300 Champlain College students to be housed
at Eagles Landing housing on St. Paul Street in fall 2018 both reduce
student rental market demand. Also, there are questions about
possible declines in student resident numbers at all area colleges
because of either the demographic decline in college age populations
and/or free tuition for college educations sudden starts this fall
throughout the public universities in New York State and in the City
of Boston.
While there is population growth in
Chittenden County, the composition of that growth radically differs
the past when under-65 age population naturally increased in the
County and the State. Since 2010, ten of fourteen Vermont counties
actually lost population. But as important, State official
population projections, averaged, predict a doubling of senior
population while residents under 65 decline—even in Chittenden
County. Since 2010 the County growth of about 800 residents yearly
mirrors the State average official population projections for
2010-2030. But the official predictions show the current growth
composed of about 1,000 seniors and a decline of 200 under-age 65
residents. If this is currently taking place, then the demand surely
mounts for not only small apartments—studios and one-bedroom
housing units—but also a surge in demand for senior housing along
the continuum which house independent residents, assisted living
facilities, and finally nursing homes.
Finally, there is a complete lack of
housing planning and policy development in Vermont as well as needed
housing assistance. Vermont has no state housing plan while
regularly producing an update to comprehensive transportation and
energy plans. Further while about 13% of all Vermont renters are low
income households benefiting from “livable rents” paying a
maximum of 30% of income for rent--mostly from federal housing
programs like Section 8—those programs stopped expanding early in
the last decade as the federal government a abandoned efforts to
provide housing assistance to all those of low and moderate income.
In addition, today in an age where most Vermonters in their working
lives will experience several job changes with the ups and downs of
income, “shelter security” may well be as important as regular
housing assistance--”shelter security” being assured a reduction
in housing costs with dips in income from illness, unemployment, etc.
“Shelter security” is also provided by Section 8 type units with
rental amount decreased (and increased) as tenant incomes change.
The response to the federal government
abandoning housing assistance has resulted in well intentioned but
fragmented responses at the state and local levels. Hospitals, the
corrections system and mental health field has resorted using
non-housing streams of government funding to pay for housing as a far
cheaper and far more beneficial to client needs than holding these
individuals in institutional conditions. These often creative effort
do in fact provide a context for formal, focused state and local
housing assistance programs. For sure, there are today plenty of
apartments ready to house the homeless and those in need of shelter.
Burlington
housing market rental websites:
Craigslist
https://vermont.craigslist.org/search/apa?search_distance=15&postal=05401&availabilityMode=0
Apartments.com
https://www.apartments.com/apartments/burlington-vt/?bb=g4ott092gIhk7r7gzG
Bissonette
Properties:
Zillow
https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_rent/Burlington-VT/condo,apartment_duplex_type/37662_rid/44.81107,-72.779618,44.064893,-73.768387_rect/9_zm/
Tony
Redington
Blog:
TonyRVT.blogspot.com
Twitter:
@TonyRVT60
