Glitter in the Gutter--Plus Glutter in Available Burlington Rental Housing

Signs of a Burlington Housing Glut, Rapidly Rising 1-Bedroom Rents—A Snapshot Inventory of Rental Housing July-August 2019

A July “snapshot rental vacancy” for Burlington identified a record number, 257, of vacant and available rentals July to September 1. With new Burlington housing projects now coming on line with some frequency, the vacancy rate among privately owned rentals continues in the 5-8% range suggesting an unhealthy near glut status in vacant private sector rentals.

A comparison of a snapshot sample of 1 and 2 bedroom Plattsburgh available rentals done earlier this year shows Burlington median rents about 64% higher—over $6,000 more a year to rent a 1 or 2 bedroom median priced apartment in Burlington versus Plattsburgh.

Two newly completed complexes, South End Apartments on Pine Street and Bayberry Commons on Grove Street, advertised a month free rent with lease. The new Redstone complex overlooking Lake Champlain on North Avenue listed a 2 bedroom apartments for $3,000 and $2,700 monthly respectively. The survey involved tabulating both apartments and single family houses offered on various online sites, principally Craigslist.

The trend of Burlington rents in spite of substantial rental inventory increases in recent years still are on the increase 2016-2019 with median 1-bedroom apartment a most significant average yearly increase of 7.9% with a median rent of $1,300 monthly.

The median prices tabulated for rentals offered results and average annual percentage increase 2016-2019: O BR (bedroom) Studio $1,050 2.8%; 1 BR $1,300 7.9%; 2 BR $1,478 3.2%; 3 BR $2,012 3.4%; and 4-or-more BR $2,975 8.0%.

Burlington City officials continue without evidence a tight housing market with little available inventory. This was in fact true for decades leading to about 2010 when student populations growth (UVM and Champlain College primarily) not only cut vacancy rates to about 1% or sometimes less, but impacted rental markets throughout Chittenden County as well as adjacent counties. Three factors changed from 2010: (1) new housing developments spurred in great part by the leadership of Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger were developed and developments already in the books will result in added supply for the next few years at least; (2) college populations peaked and are slowly declining combined with UVM and Champlain College housing more of their student population; and (3) housing development outside Burlington in other Chittenden County towns also relieved pressures on the Burlington market.

Changed demographics also play a major role and will continue to for the next decade or two at least as most Vermont counties are losing population, Chittenden County under 65 population has flat lined, and seniors comprise almost all the Chittenden County population increase of about a thousand residents a year. Growing senior residents presents the one growth area in housing demand here and throughout Vermont. Outside of the northwest part of Vermont, seniors resident numbers grow rapidly and non-senior population markedly declines. Statewide population from 2010 to date has increased by less than 1,000.

There is little reason to consider certain segments of the Burlington housing market which mostly operate of waiting lists and where units are never offered to the public—student housing being the exception. The Burlington rental market is composed of segments: (1) “private market”; (2) public housing and housing occupied by those with federal “Housing Choice Vouchers” which total about 2,000 units; (3) non-profit housing including units owned and managed by Champlain Housing Trust (CHT) and Cathedral (mostly aged restricted housing) well over 1,000 housing units; (4) college student rented private apartment units which comprise a submarket of well over 1,000 housing units.

There are essentially no vacancies, only waiting lists for federally assisted housing and non-profit housing (about 2,000 on CHT and Cathedral wait lists). The same applies to student housing as this population does take a certain portion of housing out of the “private market.”