Burlington Mall Pursuit of Apple Likely Fruitless

Apple Too High in the Tree for Sinex Mall to Reach (even at 14 stories!)

Burlington Town Center's (BTC's) owner Don Sinex from the start dangled a new Mall re-development with all kinds of baubles and bangles from housing and parks to a hotel and conference center. One of those baubles offered for Burlington residents supposed retail
“need” as old time malls and box stores wither on the vine: our very own Apple Store (now just “Apple” with new branding). No one has heard anything more other than Sinex saying the Cupertino, CA icompany has some interest. Probably one local Vermont business has more than a passing curiosity—Small Dog Electronics whose stores in Waitsfield and So. Burlington serve all the fanboys and girls in northwestern and central Vermont—the others must go to Montreal, or the stores in southern New Hampshire and Albany.

An Apple in Burlington? Well, good luck Charley Brown!   What a carnival barker Sinex seems to be! Check out our sister northern New England states of Maine and New Hampshire with twice our populations and where Apple does have just four—count them four Apples. Maine has one store at Maine Mall, So. Portland, in Cumberland County with a population of 100,000 more than Chittenden's 136,000, And nearby within a half hour drive are three 100,000 plus counties--Androscoggin, Kennebec and York [over 200,000]. The two counties north and south of Burlington—Franklin and Addison average 40,000 population. To the west, well there are those pesky mountains and Small Dog with it Waitsfield shop.

Our closest Apple to Burlington is in Montreal, 100 miles away. But we have a full service Apple in Small Dog in So. Burlington. Small Dog there is perfectly located a five minute free bus ride away from its primary local customer base—the 15,000 or so students and staff at UVM.

Speaking of New Hampshire with its no sales tax on Apple trinkets and Watches, there are two border stores at Pheasant Lane in Nashua and Rockingham Mall in Salem. The third Apple resides in Manchester in Hillsborough County which has a population two-thirds of Vermont's--over 400,000. And Manchester is a few miles from the Merrimack County line (includes Concord) with 146,000 population.

So the idea that Apple will put Small Dog out of business with a store in the Burlington just does not compute.  How about them apples Mr. Sinex? If Sinex wanted to help small business it might pursue a small puppy from Small Dog, not an urban Apple, a fruit too far. Sushi on a conveyor belt anyone? That new store touted by Sinex added at the BTC entrance lasted just twelve months.

How about them Apples!

More Height as Midget Buildings Unprofitable and Puny for Downtown--More Height = More Developer Profit

Burlington advocates for a 14-story Mall redevelopment just believe that 7, 8 or 9 floor buildings can provide enough space for offices, apartments and shopping.  They know that the puny sized Marriott/Westlake/Hilton Hotel trio of midget buildings are poorly sized and should have been built half again the current size.  Take a look:

This give a sense of height and massive scale when gong from the current downtown height limit of about six floor--like the 7 floor Hilton--and up to 9-10 floors when public benefits are provided--the size of Westlake and Marriott and then going four floors more which is outside current zoning--the 65 foot height took two years of process within the Planning Commission and City Council as business interests sought higher and higher limits and the community said no  Now businessman Sinex brings the same old saw, more height--which really translates into "more profits for me.":

Burlington Town Center Development: Cannibal Towers?

Sinex's “Cannibal Towers”

The New York owner of Burlington Town Center Donald Sinex forces the City to change its zoning for height so he can almost triple the floors without public benefit from about six floors to fourteen, from a 65 feet limit to 160 feet. The project featuring two fourteen-story towers might better be called “Cannibal Towers.” The project doubles the Mall retail space, adds 374 units of housing, and floors of office space. But much of Cannibal Towers success depends on the demise of similar existing development and population shift from other parts of the Chittenden County. In a word there is no rationale or market demand for a project the size Mr. Sinex pursues. Besides his development can be mostly accommodated without resort to changing our zoning, as he pointed out in an early interview.  Of course no one really knows what Mr. Sinex is up to as no marketing study for the retail/office space/housing has been done by a responsible public agency. 

Look at the current retail environment and population trends here. First retail, parricularly big box and malls nationally and in this area downsize faster than the number of land line phones.  Sears nears bankruptcy and movement from stores to e-commerce has just begun. The University Mall is under water financially and we can expect even Williston big-box retail to begin to wilt. Therefore, no need to double the space of a now half empty Town Center mall! Simply, Mr. Sinex can only fill his mall by forcing other area retailers holding “going out of business” sales. Mr. Sinex proposes a “vulture mall.”

The housing and commercial space cannibal aspect gets a little more complicated. But it comes down to the numbers of area residents in a fast changing demographic picture. Overall, the population under 65 age is shrinking. During the 2010-2030 period our County non-senior population declines by 5% (double digits in Vermont overall). College age population in Vermont drops 22% or down 8,000 which means lower and lower student numbers at UVM and other area colleges and training schools. At the same time our County and statewide seniors growth doubles—over 90,000 seniors added, more than double Burlington's population!   During the 2010-2030 period our statewide population growth overall is likely 3-4% (from 2010 to 2015 Census estimates the State grew by a miniscule 300 or so residents).

So Mr. Sinex for both office space and for housing must look to draw from mostly other area towns' office space and housing there being no significant “growth” market here in the County, demographically speaking. For Mr. Sinex, the real opportunity may be just to build and then run away—cannibalizing is not an appetizing approach to “development”!