The Vermont Population Bomb

The Vermont Population Bomb

Those concerned with ongoing world population growth always describe it as a “bomb” assuredly exhausting global natural resources, making average individual economic betterment impossible, and defeating global sustainability.

Meanwhile Vermont not unlike other northeastern states and aging nations suddenly finds itself sitting in a long period of demographic stagnation as the young and working age population declines and senior numbers climb through the roof. Conservatively, using the average of the two State population projections, the 2010-2030 period features a yearly decline of working age population of 2,100 and the young 0-20 1,400 while seniors soar 4,400 or a town the size of Stowe added each year!

The senior population bomb got plenty of attention of Governor Jim Douglas early in the century, the decline in the young those concerned with why school costs rise with declining student numbers, and finally in the recent election campaign the disappearing and aging workforce segment came into regular discussion. In his budget message Governor Scott called the growth of the workforce necessary for stabilizing the support for tax revenues but did not bother to note the trend of workforce decline of 2,100 a year or specific steps to slow the leakage much less how to reverse the long term trend.

Demographic trends are not a mystery and Vermont like all states and do periodic releases of official projections of populations by age which agencies must use in preparation of policies, plans and programs. The two current projections provide no comfort to the State leadership or those in our cities and towns. Vermont's two official 2010-2030 populations start from the same 2010 Census population of 625,700 (numbers here are rounded to the nearest 100) with projections showing: Scenario A a growth to 670,100 or 44,400 more residents and, Scenario B decline of 5,300 to 620,500.

As a practical matter these 20 year projections developed every so often have tended toward paralleling U.S.Census which has a large staff dealing with all aspects of current and future demographic estimates for the nation as a whole, the states and right down to each of our Vermont counties, towns and even state representative districts.

So Vermont and its political leaders face a different kind of population bomb, one of declining children each year or 17% for the 2010-2030 period; a double digit decline, 11%, of working age population 20-65; and an almost doubling of the senior population, 97% or an 88,900 increase.

So what is the Vermont change in population in 2016 and how does it compare with the two projection from the 2010 Census scenarios, one predicting an increase of 44,400 and the second a 5,300 decline? Census for 2016: Vermont population down 1,100! The decline suggests Scenario B is more likely than Scenario A. While the analysis here averages the two scenarios, Scenario B would mean an even greater loss of under 20 population as well as the 20-65 workforce population while still reaching an 82% increase in seniors.

The numbers for Vermont counties and towns can reach even starker levels, again using just the two scenario average. Nine of fourteen counties have lost population since 2010, Census estimates. Projections show practically all counties lose both young and working age population while senior aged numbers soars—even Chittenden County with a 11% decline in the young 0-19, a drop 5% working age, and 111% increase in seniors. Still overall population of Chittenden County 2010-2030 us projected to grow, thanks to the seniors numbers, 7% for the 20 year period.

For a typical county other than Chittenden there is a population decline and the projections are far starker. Addison County numbers are: 3.9% drop in population overall, 0-20 age down 36% and working age 20-65 down 21% while senior numbers jump 112%. Again, if 2010-2016 Census estimates are in indicator, these numbers could show even greater differentials.

Again it is so important to emphasize these Vermont numbers are not that much different than those of other northeastern states or slow growth ones in the midwest. All Vermont's neighbors will be pushing in the same direction in all likelihood to staunch the flow of declining workforce and the young while dealing with a massive increase in their senior populations.   

The two key reports on projecting Vermont populations are:

1. “Vermont Population Projections 2010-2030” K Jones and L Schwarz, Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development (2013). This report contains population projections for 2020 and 2030 for the State and counties by age for two secenarios (A and B); and in addition total town population projections for both scenarios for 2020 and 2030.

2. “The Challenges of Projecting Vermont's Population” by the Vermont Joint Fiscal Office (2015).

Vermont No Longer the "Beckoning Country"

The Associated Press Christmas day news article appeared in an inconspicuous place about half way into the Burlington Free Press with a headline about Maine losing population in the latest 2015 U.S. Census state estimates as we enter the second half of the decade in a few days. Well, Vermont lost population too, 725 residents, the second straight year of decline and putting Vermont's “growth” since the 2010 Census at an anemic 301 equal to about 120 additional households.

The net 301 resident growth 2010-2015 compares to the average of two Vermont official projections of over 14,000 for this decade. Certainly the 2008 Great Recession depressed the economy nationally but not so much so in Vermont. And while total Vermont population barely changes, the explosive growth in senior population in Vermont continues its relentless pace of over 4,000 a year—equivalent to a Town of Stowe population age 65 and over additionally yearly. Obviously the Vermont workforce, school age, and the total non-senior population of the State remains on track for a significant decline—a projection State experts definitely got right.

It is long past the time for changing overall state policies and budgeting to reflect the new demographic reality. Talking about increasing population of any age—your or old—to our state faces a grim hurdle—all other New England States and New York face the same bleak population trends—more seniors and less non-senior population. Some nations—Japan and some Western European nations moved into the “young-decline” decades ago and have adjusted public policies and budgets like an explorers in a new world. Politicians who run on the claim they will increase Vermont's population by 70,000 or so appear like a Kings convinced they can hold back the daily rise of the ocean tides.

The 1960s and 1970s in Vermont brought an economic boom spurred by the combination of the new interstate highways, the baby boomers coming of age, and a new recreation industry centered on skiing. There is nothing on the horizon which which change the economic and demographic tides. One obvious possibility—and it was studied by a New York/Quebec/Vermont international study—would be a high speed passenger service averaging 175 mph (fastest European train schedule average speed 179 mph) between Boston and Montreal via Vermont. Such a service would make commuting from Burlington to Montreal about 30 minutes, from Montpelier 45 minutes. For White River Junction area to Boston commuting time would be about 50 minutes. Still the speeds contemplated for the Boston-Vermont-Montreal “high speed” plan right now are only 110 mph.

In the early 1960s a Vermont promotion with the theme of come to the “beckoning country” was dropped because the growth of the State had become so rapid. Right now without any change Vermont appears to be the “non-beckoning country.”

Senior Population Tsunami, Non-Senior Drought Hits Vermont

Population of More Seniors and Fewer Non-seniors Tide Begins to Sweep Across Vermont

At a Burlington governor candidates forum November 2, 2015, all expressed concern about the need for more  Vermont working age population—both a Republican and a Democrat called for the State to grow its population to 700,000 to provide for economic stability. The candidates face a Vermont tide of declining working age population, a doubling of senior residents, and collapse of school aged children numbers during the current 2010-2030 period. The 2010-2030 State average estimate of total growth of 19,500, 3.1%, barely pushes the population needle from the 2010 number, 625,700 to 645,300 in 2030.

Whatever the numbers, the tide of an aging population and stable or declining non-senior population remains typical for slow growth areas like New England and the upper mid-West—with senior population growth typical of all states.

Vermont now moves into the second quarter of a 20 year period of population decline in all key age groups but one—a senior population which almost doubles 2010-2030, an average estimated additional 88,900 residents 65-years-and over to a 2030 total of 180,500. The average population projection for 2030 places the total State population of 645,300 with seniors 25.9% of that total compare to 14.6% in the 2010 Census.

The radical change in Vermont population trends since the 2010 Census include a year of actual decline and for 2014 estimated total population declines in nine of fourteen Vermont counties. In the State projections averaged, the decline in 0-19 population is 27,100 and 20-64 42,200.

While the official State population estimates do show a 3.1% growth or 19,500 2010-2030. But even Chittenden County which accounts for over half the 3.1% growth for the State loses in the all the key age groups under 65: -10.8% in under 19 aged, -19.7% college aged 20-24, and -4.6 in the prime working aged population 20-64.

While Chittenden County declines in the younger population reflect a major departure from historic patterns going back a half century, the numbers neighboring county Addison startle: 0-19 age -35.9%, 20-64 age -20.7, overall under 65 22.5%. Seniors 65 and over? Up 112.2% from 5,100 to an estimated 10,800.

This analysis averages the two growth estimates, Scenarios A and B, from “Vermont Population Estimates 2010-2030” published by the State of Vermont in 2013, and the report may viewed at http://dail.vermont.gov/dail-publications/publications-general-reports/vt-population-projections-2010-2030

More Vermont Seniors--equivalent every two years to a Burlington ward, every three a Montpelier

VERMONT SENIOR POPULTION GROWTH—A CLOSER LOOK

Last decade Vermont Governor Jim Douglas and then UVM President James Fogler regularly referred to the growth of Vermont seniors’ population as the major driving force in Vermont for the foreseeable future—well the future arrived and now and the dimensions of population change for the 2000-2030 period become even more pronounced than expected.  Census estimates 3,215 more seniors each year 2000-2030.

Census described the numbers for Vermont senior growth 2000-2030—doubling their share of total Vermont population to 24% with the 65-and-over age residents rising from  77,510 in 2000 to an estimated 173,930 in 2030, up 124%.  To bring this into perspective this 96,430 Census growth estimate amounts to 3,215 more seniors each year, more than three times the Census growth estimate for the entire state during the three-year period 2000-2013 total of 889.  

The statewide senior population growth every three years tops the total population of Montpelier, or in two years a Burlington ward. 

The senior population growth in Vermont is home-grown, almost exclusively the growth of our existing population in 2000 moving into the senior range, the longer life expectancy thanks to improved lifestyle and medical gains in addition to the key demographic driver, the baby boom population bubble hitting retirement years. 

Meanwhile, changes in the under-65 age population remains dead in the water.  Census probably overestimated the growth of Vermont population overall, 17% to 711,000 2000-2030, in great part because of the “Great Recession” hit in 2008 with the U.S. birth rates dropping to levels not seen since the 1930s Great Depression.

The Vermont senior population bomb-let does not exist in isolation.  A more recent Census 50 year projection extending to 2065 nationally shows an under 65 age population growth of 20% while the over 65 numbers increase 80%

So almost halfway to 2030, Vermont estimated population growth is only 2.9% (2013 Census estimate) versus the projection for 2000-2030 of 17% growth with the State on a trajectory right now of about  a third of the projected rate.  The baby bust and low net migration to the State represent the two key factors of likely small under 65 age population change and right now it is fair to conclude the under 65 age group overall is in decline since 2000.

So what about the population under 65?  Here even the optimistic 30 year estimate of the Census—a likely overestimate—really looks dismal.  The Census estimated under 18 age group dropping 10,564 or 2.4% per decade 2000-2030 with the 2030 projection of 136,959.  The experience of declining school enrollments continues for at least one to two decades if this trend continues.  And the prime working age population 18-64?   Yes, this estimate number does rise by 17,374 2000-2030 but still not very much in the Census estimation—2.3% each decade to 400,968 in 2030.  Again, this number probably represents an over estimation because of the Great Recession and the overall 2000-2013 period when net migration, a source of young and younger working age population growth clearly now remains way behind the assumption in the Census estimated for 2000-2030 calculated in 2005.

The Census projections along with overestimation of the under 65 population suggest careful examination of housing and transportation dieections for Vermont over and above a very startling new expectation of a flatlined labor force for at least two decades to come.