Response to Dan Jones on Revitalization of VT

Dan Jones in a think piece on Vermont in June 23 Vermont Digger talks about more housing and density among other elements in revitalizing Vermont "To revitalize Vermont: lsiten to the young people."


Here is my response posted today:

Some good ideas here, some incomplete. First, regardless of what we do the die is cast--the graying of Vermont is real and nothing can change the slow but steady decline (in many cases severe) of under 65 population.  This graying of Vermont (doubling our senior population share from 12% to 24% between 2010-2030, or over 90,000 more 65--and-over residents is being repeated to a lesser extent throughout the northeast and the nation). Second, while good transportation (rail, public transit, etc. and we have a long way to go to make it so) makes sense, the lack of walkable (first) and bikable (second) downtowns and village centers remains widespread--one good example of how the U.S. went from first worldwide in highway safety in 1990 to 19th today.  First and foremost we need safe intersections for all modes--roundabouts--and bikable lanes, i.e. sidepaths and cycle track.  (As an aside Montpelier and Manchester Center both well on their way to walkable downtowns and Montpelier with its east west Winooski Transportation Plath [lighted and plowed in winter] show the way on bikable--both have Main Street corridors partly or fully roundaboutzed, the absolute necessity for both walkable and bikable.)

A lot of baloney being circulated about both need for more housing and increased densities.  Thanks to the leadership of Mayor Miro Weinberger, Burlington--source of northwest and north central Vermont spike in rents since the mid-1990s (another story)--has over 1,400 units built or through key steps in development in last two years, enough to already double its vacancy rate to 3% and expected to grow, and its primary demand for housing--student population at UVM--now down over 700 from its peak of over 13,000 in 2010 and sure to continue declining as the statewide college age population 18-22 drops.  The State's official projection, a reduction of 22% during the current 2010-2030.

Since Vermont escaped the last century--as did a handful of states including Maine--the extreme ravages of both population growth and sprawl (thanks in great part to political leadership symbolized by Act 250), to use the claim of a density issue in Vermont downtowns and village centers borders on oxymoron when our statewide population grown a robust 300 residents since 2010 and no significant population growth (other than the senior demographic) is expected in the future.  So in the face of little or even negative population growth we can easily accommodate additional housing in large amounts in our existing built up areas with three-to-four story structures, new or rehabilitated.  Barre Street in Montpelier and Old North End in Burlington provide examples of both private and non-profit additions of major housing upgrades and added units easily maintaining both existing and needed increased densities. With a strong non-profit housing community housing affordability needs to be seriously addressed in terms of incomes policy and housing subsidies at both the state and federal levels.  

Remember not only the young need to be accommodated in downtowns and village centers with quality and safe walking cycling facilities, but so do seniors who also seek to access grocery stores, coffee shops, churches and community meetings and events--and the seniors are truly a growth opportunity for Vermont with most bringing with them practically guaranteed retirement incomes!

THE ECOS "POPULATION ELF"

The Ecos “Population Elf”

The Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission (CCRPC) in its “Ecos" regional plan wants County citizens to add the “Population Elf” to the Easter Bunny and Abominable Snowperson.  That’s right, even though the under- 18 population continued to decline 2000-2010 somehow the Population Elf elevates future population growth to double that for the last decade to over 2,000 yearly, and the CCRPC claims 35,000 population growth from 2015 through 2035.

Forget recent continuing decline in population increases in Vermont and the County decade by decade, and forget the pesky Census (it’s only a “government estimate” really) which suggests Vermont with practically no increase in the under 65 age group 2000-2030 while the over 65 age crowd more than doubles.  (Governor Douglas tended to side with Census and not the Population Elf on population data.)  And, of course, forget the under 1,300 average yearly County population increase 1990-2011, and under 1,000 yearly 2000-2011—again those pesky Census folks at work.  

Then there are those stubbon under-30 generation folks who increasingly refuse to get driver licenses—a drop of 20% at last count.  But the Population Elf will get after these young folks to get to their Chevrolet freedom and stop shifting to those 50 Chittenden County Transportation Authority (CCTA) Link commuter buses each workday.  Yes, about 50 commuters abandoning their cars yearly for the bus, perhaps to try to make their family budgets work.

Oh, Burlington citizens, just ignore the fact that all major approach streets from the burbs—Colchester Ave., Main St., the Northern Connector, Pine St., Shelburne St.—boast traffic declines of 8 to 29% since traffic peaked about 20-25 years ago in the late 1980s.  Believe the Population Elf and his twin, the Traffic Growth Elf, not the lying statistics! The Population Elf will get to work to change the accelerating downward trend in City car traffic after it stops the flood of commuters converting from car drivers to bus riders.  The Population Elf assures us transportation sector stops its cutting greenhouse gases, now about back to about 1990 (down 8% 2000-2010 statewide) and aiming at 1980s and even 1970s levels.

The CCRPC inherits the legacy of the former Metropolitan Planning Organization where the Vermont Digger nicely summarized, $40 million in design and planning funds went down the tubes on the Circumferential Highway.  Maybe with a little extra help the CCRPC Population Elf can revive this plan also.

Seriously, what we need at this point is a little honesty and integrity in regional and local planning.  Population and traffic numbers and projections need to be backed up with peer reviews of those with long term experience in the areas.  

In transportation policy and programming this means accepting the end of the car age and starting by plowing full speed ahead with commuter rail from the Burlington to Montpelier, St. Albans and Middlebury.  Finally, it means unclogging intersections for all users and that goal along with safety, the first priority, cannot be done without converting County intersections on a priority basis with roundabouts.  At the same time let’s revive the Burlington waterfront with a quality connection using light rail to the Marketplace, UVM and Fletcher Allen.  However, even with all this the Population Elf likely remains in the realm of myth, right where it began in Ecos.