Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Vermont Population/Seniors Growth a Tale of Two Realms

With another year of Census population data now in for 2014, it becomes clear Vermont, Chittenden County, and Burlington trends are best represented by a flat line for population and a continuing senior growth leading to a 2000-2030 doubling from 12% of total population to 24%.   Vermont population grew a grand total estimate of 817 during the four years 2000-2014.  That equates to 17 persons monthly, equal to about 7 households composed of two adults and one child.  Yet during the period 2000-2013 Census estimated an annual increase of 1,946.  One-year growth in the Vermont aging population—1,946—more than doubles the 817 total population growth 2010-2014. 

Burlington—6.8% of Vermont population—grew an estimated mighty one person a month 2010-2014.  Meanwhile senior population—growth of those 65-and-above—grew 14 a month.  On an annual basis: Burlington population up 14 a year, senior up 132 a year.  For Chittenden County (exactly 25% of the Vermont population 2010) grew 4—that is right four!--persons per month on a pro rata basis to the statewide growth during the period 2010-2014.  Meanwhile, senior growth estimated in the same manner grew 40 monthly in the County.

Economic Art Wolf in a January 2014 column in the Free Press using history as a guide concludes Vermont rural populations will decline in the future as the State returns to pre-1960 population trends dating back to the mid-1800s.  Meanwhile one can expect Burlington and other urban areas to increase population as the younger population increasingly chooses urban locations, drives less, owns cars less and get driver licenses less.   Seniors seek housing in built up areas where public transport and services are nearby.