The
Associated Press Christmas day news article appeared in an
inconspicuous place about half way into the Burlington Free Press
with a headline about Maine losing population in the latest 2015 U.S.
Census state estimates as we enter the second half of the decade in a
few days. Well, Vermont lost population too, 725 residents, the
second straight year of decline and putting Vermont's “growth”
since the 2010 Census at an anemic 301 equal to about 120 additional
households.
The
net 301 resident growth 2010-2015 compares to the average of two
Vermont official projections of over 14,000 for this decade.
Certainly the 2008 Great Recession depressed the economy nationally
but not so much so in Vermont. And while total Vermont population
barely changes, the explosive growth in senior population in Vermont
continues its relentless pace of over 4,000 a year—equivalent to a
Town of Stowe population age 65 and over additionally yearly.
Obviously the Vermont workforce, school age, and the total non-senior
population of the State remains on track for a significant decline—a
projection State experts definitely got right.
It
is long past the time for changing overall state policies and
budgeting to reflect the new demographic reality. Talking about
increasing population of any age—your or old—to our state faces a
grim hurdle—all other New England States and New York face the same
bleak population trends—more seniors and less non-senior
population. Some nations—Japan and some Western European nations
moved into the “young-decline” decades ago and have adjusted
public policies and budgets like an explorers in a new world.
Politicians who run on the claim they will increase Vermont's
population by 70,000 or so appear like a Kings convinced they can
hold back the daily rise of the ocean tides.
The
1960s and 1970s in Vermont brought an economic boom spurred by the
combination of the new interstate highways, the baby boomers coming
of age, and a new recreation industry centered on skiing. There is
nothing on the horizon which which change the economic and
demographic tides. One obvious possibility—and it was studied by
a New York/Quebec/Vermont international study—would be a high speed
passenger service averaging 175 mph (fastest European train schedule
average speed 179 mph) between Boston and Montreal via Vermont. Such
a service would make commuting from Burlington to Montreal about 30
minutes, from Montpelier 45 minutes. For White River Junction area to
Boston commuting time would be about 50 minutes. Still the speeds
contemplated for the Boston-Vermont-Montreal “high speed” plan
right now are only 110 mph.
In
the early 1960s a Vermont promotion with the theme of come to the
“beckoning country” was dropped because the growth of the State
had become so rapid. Right now without any change Vermont appears to
be the “non-beckoning country.”
