Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Chittenden County Rental Vacancy Data Background

Below find some historical data on Chittenden County rental vacancy rates and the recent 2015-2017 doubling of the recent history, 2010-2014, average of 1.4% to mid-2015 to mid-2017 of 3%.  That that 3% average is above the two-decade period of surveys of County rental vacancy rates done by the firm Allen and Brooks through 2014 when the highest rate semi-annual rate ever recorded was 2.7%.

Chittenden County rental vacancy rates information (from press reports of semi-annual Allen and Brooks rental and housing survey of Chittenden County)
--1995 to 2014 (36 semi-annual reports)--vacancy rate never above 3.0%
--peak rate to July 2015, 2.7%
--Average for 2016 3.25% (Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission)(
--recent rates (%)
Ave 2010-2014 1.4
June 2015 2.8 (highest since Allen and Brooks started surveys two decades ago)
December 2015 3.0
June 2016 2.1
December 2016 4.4
June 2017 2.5
June 2015-June 2017 3.0
--resurgence of housing construction in Burlington since 2013 (over 2,500 units built, in process of development) along with continuing balance of County ongoing expansion lead to an increased vacancy rate
--2.8% vacancy rate June 2015, highest since Allen and Brooks survey firm began semi-annual survey in two decades
--vacancy rate continued high hitting high of 4.4% in December 2016
--average of 3.0% June 2015 to June 2017 (two years) compares to 2010-2014 average of 1.4%
--snapshot vacancy surveys show in summer 2017 about 500 apartments are available to rent today in Burlington alone
--Add to this likely declines in students from both demographic trends and other states (two-thirds of UVM students are out-of-staters) using incentives to keep their college bound students home. New York, for example, starts it free tuition for residents in all public universities this fall.

Monday, August 28, 2017

Cambrian Rise first housing, Liberty House mostly occupied by college students?

The first part of the huge housing (700+ units), housing, hotel and commercial development, Cambrian Rise, on North Avenue opened this summer. Liberty House, the former Catholic orphanage, conversion to 32 studio/32 one bedroom apartments has been renting. Some interesting observations at the first housing Liberty House (the former Catholic Orphanage) with available unit rents between $1,350 and $1,900. A count of license plates today found 16 out-of-state and 13 Vermont. This does not include one covered motorcycle, a U-haul moving truck and a car with temporary Vermont plates.

With Burlington colleges opening this week, it is reasonable to assume that over half the renters so far are likely composed of out-of-state and even a few in-state students (2/3 of the 13,000 UVM student are out-of-state residents).