The
Vermont Population Bomb
Those
concerned with ongoing world population growth always describe it as
a “bomb” assuredly exhausting global natural resources, making
average individual economic betterment impossible, and defeating
global sustainability.
Meanwhile
Vermont not unlike other northeastern states and aging nations
suddenly finds itself sitting in a long period of demographic
stagnation as the young and working age population declines and
senior numbers climb through the roof. Conservatively, using the
average of the two State population projections, the 2010-2030 period
features a yearly decline of working age population of 2,100 and the
young 0-20 1,400 while seniors soar 4,400 or a town the size of Stowe
added each year!
The
senior population bomb got plenty of attention of Governor Jim
Douglas early in the century, the decline in the young those
concerned with why school costs rise with declining student numbers,
and finally in the recent election campaign the disappearing and
aging workforce segment came into regular discussion. In his budget
message Governor Scott called the growth of the workforce necessary
for stabilizing the support for tax revenues but did not bother to
note the trend of workforce decline of 2,100 a year or specific steps
to slow the leakage much less how to reverse the long term trend.
Demographic
trends are not a mystery and Vermont like all states and do periodic
releases of official projections of populations by age which agencies
must use in preparation of policies, plans and programs. The two
current projections provide no comfort to the State leadership or
those in our cities and towns. Vermont's two official 2010-2030
populations start from the same 2010 Census population of 625,700
(numbers here are rounded to the nearest 100) with projections
showing: Scenario A a growth to 670,100 or 44,400 more residents
and, Scenario B decline of 5,300 to 620,500.
As a
practical matter these 20 year projections developed every so often
have tended toward paralleling U.S.Census which has a large staff
dealing with all aspects of current and future demographic estimates
for the nation as a whole, the states and right down to each of our
Vermont counties, towns and even state representative districts.
So
Vermont and its political leaders face a different kind of population
bomb, one of declining children each year or 17% for the 2010-2030
period; a double digit decline, 11%, of working age population 20-65;
and an almost doubling of the senior population, 97% or an 88,900
increase.
So what
is the Vermont change in population in 2016 and how does it compare
with the two projection from the 2010 Census scenarios, one
predicting an increase of 44,400 and the second a 5,300 decline?
Census for 2016: Vermont population down 1,100! The decline
suggests Scenario B is more likely than Scenario A. While the
analysis here averages the two scenarios, Scenario B would mean an
even greater loss of under 20 population as well as the 20-65
workforce population while still reaching an 82% increase in
seniors.
The
numbers for Vermont counties and towns can reach even starker levels,
again using just the two scenario average. Nine of fourteen
counties have lost population since 2010, Census estimates.
Projections show practically all counties lose both young and working
age population while senior aged numbers soars—even Chittenden
County with a 11% decline in the young 0-19, a drop 5% working age,
and 111% increase in seniors. Still overall population of
Chittenden County 2010-2030 us projected to grow, thanks to the
seniors numbers, 7% for the 20 year period.
For a
typical county other than Chittenden there is a population decline
and the projections are far starker. Addison County numbers are:
3.9% drop in population overall, 0-20 age down 36% and working age
20-65 down 21% while senior numbers jump 112%. Again, if 2010-2016
Census estimates are in indicator, these numbers could show even
greater differentials.
Again it
is so important to emphasize these Vermont numbers are not that much
different than those of other northeastern states or slow growth
ones in the midwest. All Vermont's neighbors will be pushing in the
same direction in all likelihood to staunch the flow of declining
workforce and the young while dealing with a massive increase in
their senior populations.
The two
key reports on projecting Vermont populations are:
1.
“Vermont Population Projections 2010-2030” K Jones and L Schwarz,
Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development (2013). This
report contains population projections for 2020 and 2030 for the
State and counties by age for two secenarios (A and B); and in
addition total town population projections for both scenarios for
2020 and 2030.
2. “The
Challenges of Projecting Vermont's Population” by the Vermont
Joint Fiscal Office (2015).
