October
2016
Snapshot
of Burlington Rental Vacancies Reflects Healthy Condition and
Plentiful Rental Availabilities, Surprising Trends
--Burlington
rental vacancy rate very likely in “healthy” range
--226
rentals listed (equals 2.3% of 2010 total rental units)
--one
rental offered with first month “free”
--about
250 vacant student “beds” in 4-6 bedroom rentals
An
early October “snapshot” of Burlngton available rental vacancies
reveals a plentiful availability of one bedroom and larger rentals
and a likely vacancy rate within the “healthy” 3 to 5% range.
A
check on selected websites identified 226 available to rent. The 226
along represent 2.3% vacancy based on the 2010 Census of almost
10,000 rental housing units in the City. The 2.3% is only an
indicator, not reflective of the actual, higher, rate. For example,
for Bissonette Properties which has a considerable number of rentals
only three were tabulated (one each for three bedroom categories) and
for the S. D. Ireland Grove Street project which is open and
continually finishing sections of its 220 unit project, just a single
one bedroom and two bedroom were included in the tabulations. Not
all websites with listings were tabulated, though most of the popular
ones, such as Craig's List and apartments.com are included. One
would expect the Burlington rental market well into the lower end of
the 3-5% vacancy rate, considered “healthy” by housing analysts.
The
Burlington housing market which neared a vacancy rate of as little as
one percent in the 2011-2013 period clearly began to loosen
considerably in 2015, according to local landlords who in some cases
saw calls from prospective renters from one or more calls daily
dropping to one a week or so. The most recent two private
semi-annual Chittenden County vacancy surveys found an average of
2.5% vacancy through early this year and predicted the rate would
climb over 3.0% later in 2016. This snapshot survey adds some
evidence supporting that prediction.
Table
1 outlines the tabulation from observations October 7 of rental
availabilities by bedroom size with price ranges and median provided.
Table 2 provides similar data from the July survey. The October
survey takes place after the annual student migration back to college
at UVM and Champlain College which together have 15,000 enrolled.
Median
Rents
The
most significant rental number, the median rent for a one-bedroom,
remained constant at $1,050 for both surveys almost the exact number
of available units (37 in October, 38 in July). The two-bedroom
median rent did increase 11% from $1,350 in July to $1,500 in
October—but 70 units were tabulated in October versus only 43 in
July so one would expect several units were available in October at
the July median number.
Table
1: Burlngton Vacant Available Rentals October 2016: by Bedroom
Size— Total Rentals, Price Range, and Median Rent
226 Apartments 10/07/2016
Summary Total $ Range $ Median
0
BR 1 800 800
1
BR 37 750-1,500 1,050
2
BR 70 850-2,250 1,500
3
BR 62 1,050-2,250 2,160
4 BR+ 56 1,000-5,000 3,300
Table
2: Burlngton Vacant Available Rentals July 2016: by Bedroom
Size— Total Rentals, Price Range, and Median Rent
129 Apartments
Summary Total $ Range $ Median
0 BR 14 700-1,400 968
1 BR 38 700-1,900 1,050
2 BR 43 950-2,600 1,350
3 BR 26 799-2,595 1,825
4 BR+ 8 875-2,900 2,400
The
three-bedroom and four+-bedroom increased medians really are not
comparable to July as 108 were tabulated in October versus 34 in
July. Further, a large number of rentals were single family homes
which likely skewed upward the median rents on both bedroom groups.
Overall
Trends
The
surveys here take place in a period of dynamic change in the
Burlington rental housing market which totaled 9,800 total rental
units (occupied and vacant available) in the 2010 Census. Starting
in 2013 after rental units added averaging mid-double digits a year,
through this summer a total of over 2,000 rentals were added or in
late process of development—almost 700 per year. Over half the
units are built or under construction with the S. D. Ireland Bayberry
on Grove Street, 220 units, the largest with some completed and
occupied and others coming on line regularly. The largest project,
Cambrian Rise, 675 units at former Diocesan lands sold by Burlington
College, is late in the development process. These 2,000 rental
units moving through development along represent a 20% increase in
the rental inventory as of 2010.
“Dormitory
Housing” Trend
A very
surprising finding in the October survey is the number 56 rentals of
4-6 bedrooms totaling about 250 beds—the type of housing based on
the units tabulated rented primarily to the college student
population. It is fair to say much of these larger rentals are
“dormitory” housing rented by college students. The UVM student
population peaked in 2010 and Champlain College expects its resident
student body of about 2,200 to remain constant while growing its
online programming. Given the current vacancies, it is well known
the major new dormitory building on the UVM campus set to be occupied
next fall will also house about 300 students now housed mostly in
Burlington rentals. This likely means another 70-90 rental vacancies
will occur by mid-2017 from this change alone.
Student
Population Choosing Smaller Rentals?
Another
trend—yet to be tested fully—may be students taking advantage of
a larger housing supply to reside in 2 or 3 bedroom units rather than
4-6 bedroom arrangements. It is obviously easier and more satisfying
for students to make arrangements for a smaller “home share”
situation as well as less competition for common areas (kitchens,
living rooms, etc.). And pricing increase per bedroom from 2, to 3,
to 4 and over bedroom units is about $300 to $400 per bedroom. Until
the last year or so the availability of any sized apartment was
constrained. Now there appears to be a considerable available vacant
units except in the efficiency category.
Needs
Burlington
with its housing production expansion since 2013 with over 2,000
rentals built, being built or well into the development process has
well exceeded its share of a Regional Housing Initiative aimed adding
3,500 housing units in a five year period. And, Burlington is
remarkable in providing “affordable” rental housing (affordable
including both Public Housing, Section 8 vouchers, and non-profit
housing by Champlain Housing Trust and Cathedral). The 2,500
affordable existing or contained in the 2,000 housing units
referenced above insure that about 30% of non-student rental
households in Burlington reside in “affordable” homes.
The
demographics of Chittenden County for 2010-2030 show in population
projections a slight decline In those aged under 65 years and a
doubling of those aged over 65—senior population growing from
17,400 in 2010 to 36,500 in 2030. This is an increase of almost 900
seniors yearly.
The
prime housing needs for Burlington? First and foremost, age
restricted housing for the growing senior population. Second, the
need is for very low income housing assistance for s somewhat stable
non-senior family population and for seniors. The Sinex Mall
provides no senior housing and no deep subsidy units benefiting the
very low income.
Burlington
Town Center
This
analysis excludes likely additional housing in a Burlngton Town
Center development. The Coalition for a Livable City campaign for a
“Better Town Center” advocates for a project within current
zoning but with increased proportions of affordable housing units,
probably very near the Sinex proposal of 54 units. Overall, total
housing units might be reduced to perhaps 150. Clearly there is no
need for student housing in newly developed housing in the downtown
or elsewhere in the City at this time as both UVM and Champlain
College continue to make strides to sharply reduce their dependance
on the City housing to supply the needs of their students.
Market
for Market Rate Housing?
Clearly
the Burlington housing market has changed radically in the past two
years. There are questions. In certain housing categories—larger
bedroom sizes, for example—the City may be facing a housing glut.
Certainly the top one percent will always be served by the
“market”--has been (see Lake Street, Westlake, etc.,
developments). At this point, just adding more units of housing with
a plentiful supply (and already set to grow further) of market
housing becomes a low priority. And, placing ongoing efforts at more
non-profit housing (in all its many varieties) and finding new State
and local sources to provide deep subsidies for low income households
becomes the major priority for all age groups.
Tony
Redington
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