Draft 5/10/2020
Burlington Snapshot Rental Vacancy Survey—
Draft Data and Analysis - May 2020
Here are numbers from a May 8-10 snapshot inventory of available Burlington rentals gathered from online services Zillow, Craigslist, apartments.com, etc.
There were two surprising numbers. First, the median prices changes per year from the 2017 snapshot survey to this survey were less than 1% median price increase per year for the predominant rentals offered, 1-bedroom and 2-bedroom units. Increases per year for the 2017-2020 three year period were 0.6% per year for 1-bedroom median price and 0.1% per year increase in price for the median price 2-bedroom as offered.
Note most rentals do not include electricity and in a large proportion heat is not included. There is a clear indication that rental prices in Burlington have been fairly stable 2016 to date in 2020. Clearly housing development coming on line starting in 2016 has helped to stop the price increases in apartment rentals, but there is no indication that prices are dropping at all to this point.
May 2020 Snapshot Burlington Rental Inventory
Median Rent Sample Size
Studio $1,225 21
1 Bedroom 1,350 99
2 Bedroom 1,500 136
3 Bedroom 2,000 64
4+ Bedroom 3,000 34
Clearly apartment rentals prices remain inflated. Note a Craigslist survey of Plattsburg rents done last fall found a 1-bedroom median of $790 and 2-bedroom median off $900, $570 less per month for a 1-bedroom rent an $600 a month less for a 2-bedroom rent than the May 2020 numbers for Burlington.
Second, the available rental numbers, 354, are up 50% over similar surveys of about 225 taken in 2017 and 2019. There is no question that there are a sizable number of rental units on the market. The causes include both sizable new rental inventory coming on line in Burlington (Cambrian Rise and Bayberry Commons are examples) and several other projects throughout the County.
One very important factor which could disrupt the Burlington rental market is the impact of student rental demand decline which may materialize this fall from UVM, demand itself composed of two unknowns, the likely decline in students overall even in the best of times and the effect of Covid-19 dampening both foreign student numbers (now about 6 percent of all students) and the normal 9,000 out-of-state students incoming as well as continuing student numbers.
Landlords with experience in Burlington may have a better sense of these various trends at the moment, but its is hard to imagine any trend but downward in student rental demand as UVM overall census has been unchanged since 2010 as most other residential colleges have sustained drops in students.
Burlington Rental Vacancy Rate—Likely about 7%, Glut Territory
For the 1990-2015 period Burlington rental vacancy rate stayed in at most 1-2%, far less than the desirable “healthy” 3-5% rate posited by the Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission.
In fact, the 356 rentals offered on line in the last three days represents about a 3.5% vacancy rate using the roughly 10,000 US Census rental inventory. This rate vastly understates the percentage of units available in the so-called “private market,” perhaps only half the 10,000 Burlington rentals, about 5,000 rentals. There is practically a zero vacancy rate in federal subsidized rent assistance found in “Housing Choice Voucher” occupancy in the market (about 1,500), another well over 1,000 fed assisted housing units in Burlington Housing Authority and other developments with assigned federal Section 8 type units, 1,000 shallow subsidy non-profit housing units (Champlain Housing Trust and Cathedral primarily) and likely about 1,500 inflexible student demand unaffected by normal private market forces, primarily UVM students. Note Burlington Housing Authority and Cathedral wait lists total over 2,000 today.
With 354 units of rentals available on a “real” inventory of 5,000 rental units in the “private” rental market, the vacancy rate is about 7%, far higher than “healthy” and definitely near or in rental glut territory. An unhealthy vacancy rate means landlords cannot generate necessary revenue to cover costs and maintain their units—values of rental inventory decline, etc. There is a good reason to move as much inventory out of the private market as possible—again, compare the Burlington rents to Plattsburg where no market forces like the growth of UVM students 1990-2010 occurred helping to artificially increasing Burlington and Chittenden County rents.
Tony Redington TonyRVT99@gmail.com"?
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