Showing posts with label Burlington VT. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Burlington VT. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 25, 2020

Burlington Senior Population Climbs Sharply 2010-2019, Now 12% of City Residents

Burlington Senior Population Jumps 2010-2019


While Burlington remains forever young with  some 15,000 college students from UVM, Champlain College and Saint Michael’s residing here, the greying of Vermont seeped into its population since 2010.  


If Census 11.7% of Burlington’s 2019 estimated population of 42,819 is 65-and-over gets confirmed by the Census this year, then the 5,010 senior population 2010-2019 growth jumped 1,024 or 25.7% from the 3,986 2010 number.  Burlington senior population actually declined 104 between 2000-2010.  


Still, while Census estimates the City gained 402 residents 2010-2019, the 1,024 senior growth more than doubles that number--this means 2010-2019 non-senior (under 65) population declined, about 622 residents!


So from 2010 to 2019, the percentage of senior population in the Queen City increased from 10.3% to 12.2% of all residents.


Meanwhile, statewide Vermont is in the process of a 2010-2030 senior growth leading its share of total population from 12% to 24% during the period.  Averaging the two official state projections, each year during the 2010-2030 period a town size of Stowe, about 4,000, senior population is added to the state population while a town the size of Johnson, 3,000, decline occurs in the under 65 age population.  


As far as overall population is concerned from 2010 to now statewide there has been a slight decline and little increase is expected as of now through 2030.  Early in this decade another set of 20 year projections can be expected to be commissioned by the State.


Chittenden County area is the only showing any population gain since 2010 but even here the entire growth, about 8,000, is composed of seniors 65-and-over with little change those below in age. 

Tuesday, August 4, 2020

Burlington North-South Corridor: Separate Bike Facility, Light Rail and Sidewalk! --A Burlington Green Transport Corridor!


Create a Multi-modal Sustainable North-South Burlington Corridor by Adding Companion Light Rail to:  The “Burlington Bikepath” Gets a City Length Twin, “Ethan Allen Bikeway”?


        —the Burlington “North-South Multi-mode Corridor”: sidewalk, 

            separate bike facility and light rail 


Within a day or two of proposing a north-south separate/safe bikeway it became clear from feedback one needs to add a companion which came up in discussions of various planning and development undertakings including the North Avenue Corridor Plan, the Rail Enterprise Project (REP), Sinex’s initial public meetings on City Place and various Pine Street meetings on a workable Champlain Parkway:  a north-south light rail line.  To use a name to start (community must make the final one) let’s call it the “Burlington Green Corridor” (BTVGC).  The BTVGC features a north (from Flynn School) to South (continuing into South Burlington from Pine St/Queen City Park Rd/I 189-Parkway) a sidewalk, a separate/safe bicycle facility and a light rail line (like the new system opening this year in Montreal and found in Toronto, Sacramento, San Francisco and my other North American cities).


Most Burlington recent transportation planning centered on connecting the waterfront, Marketplace and UVM/UVMMC—that was the route chosen in the 1990s in a light rail study.  In Sinex’s City Place I even suggested a north-south and waterfront—UVM line would intersect in an underground station.  


So, a multi-modal north-south corridor composed of light rail, a separate and safe bike facilitation (protected bike lanes [cycle track] and two-way bikeway, and a sidewalk.  A plan process can get us ready for a sustainable future in the Queen City, the Burlington Green Corridor!


Here is the bike corridor put out over the weekend.  Please excuse the name “Ethan Allen”—any name should be something determined by the Burlington community at large—Alexander Twilight and Abenaki have been mentioned—Montpelier went through a public process in naming Stonecutter’s Way and the East West Bikepath, Siboinibe.


                                   ——————————

      

A series of unrelated planning, policy, and advocacy processes weave a new and very possible bikeway route from Plattsburgh Ave in the New North End to the  South Burlington border at Queen City Park Road and Pine Street—the “Ethan Allen Bikeway” route.


The “Ethan Allen” features 100% protected bike lanes (cycle track)/or a separate 10-foot wide two-way dedicated bikeway.  The difference between the “Ethan Allen” and the “Burlington Bikepath” (Bikepath) is two fold: first, the Ethan Allen is for cyclists only and, second, it is a fully lit, year-round maintained transportation facility.  


There are at least four key sections which have been discussed separately: (1) the North Avenue Corridor Plan (2014) which calls for cycle track end-to-end, Plattsburgh Ave to North Street; (2) the North Champlain two-way bikeway between Manhattan Drive and Pearl Street though the heart of the Old North End; (3) the City Place reconnection of Pine Street between Cherry and Pearl Streets; and (4) in its latest iteration, the Pine Street Coalition redesign guidelines in the form of New Street ( SafeStreetsBurlington.com ) developed this spring which extends a separate bikeway from Curtis Lumber/Kilburn Street through to Home Avenue even further on the Parkway to connect with Queen City Park Road and Pine Street, the interchange with I  189.


Two planning documents completed in 2017 provide a backdrop to the Ethan Allen outlining parts of it as protected bikelanes or a bikeway: PlanBTV Walk Bike adopted by the City Council and “Active Transportation,” the plan completed by the Chittenden County Regional Planning Commission.


Here are some further important “connectors” necessary:

  1. Starting from Plattsburgh Ave, there would be a link from North Ave to the North Champlain Bikeway via Ward St and Manhattan Drive, or North Street. 
  2. A one-block “jog” occurs between North Champlain at Pearl Street and Pine Street—likely by protected bike lanes.
  3. Pine Street from Pearl to Main Street involves addition of protected bike lanes and the necessary re-design of the restored Pine Street through City Place which currently has no provision for quality, separate, bicycle accommodation.
  4. As everyone knows, there is not a single inch of protected bike lanes along the existing design of the Champlain Parkway—a key reason (along with a net loss of sidewalk and not a single inch of sidewalk along the Parkway route, no roundabouts, etc., etc.!!) the Walk Bike Council endorsed the Pine Street Coalition Redesign Guidelines in 2016.  At that time the separate two-way bikeway from Kilburn St/Curtis Lumber ended at the Home Ave/Parkway intersection.  Thinking has evolved in part from new Coalition members from the “borderlands” residential areas both in South Burlington (Red Rocks, for example) and Burlington’s southwest corner area.  So the idea came forth to extend the bikeway right down to Queen City Park Rd/I 189/Pine Street Parkway interchange.  This also recognizes the importance of City Market South End as a major attraction of walk/bike trips in a wide area.  Of course, New Street provides an at-grade connection between Ethan Allen and Bikeway at Sears Lane/Harrison Ave at Lakeside Terrace.


The above presents an outline with details that need to be filled in along the entire route through a full corridor planning effort—but if the Parkway can be redesigned to accommodate all cyclists and the City Place Pine Street altered to add dedicated cycle service, an Ethan Allen is a very real possibility!



Tony Redington

TonyRVT99@gmail.com


August 4, 2020

Sunday, August 4, 2019

Glitter in the Gutter--Plus Glutter in Available Burlington Rental Housing

Signs of a Burlington Housing Glut, Rapidly Rising 1-Bedroom Rents—A Snapshot Inventory of Rental Housing July-August 2019

A July “snapshot rental vacancy” for Burlington identified a record number, 257, of vacant and available rentals July to September 1. With new Burlington housing projects now coming on line with some frequency, the vacancy rate among privately owned rentals continues in the 5-8% range suggesting an unhealthy near glut status in vacant private sector rentals.

A comparison of a snapshot sample of 1 and 2 bedroom Plattsburgh available rentals done earlier this year shows Burlington median rents about 64% higher—over $6,000 more a year to rent a 1 or 2 bedroom median priced apartment in Burlington versus Plattsburgh.

Two newly completed complexes, South End Apartments on Pine Street and Bayberry Commons on Grove Street, advertised a month free rent with lease. The new Redstone complex overlooking Lake Champlain on North Avenue listed a 2 bedroom apartments for $3,000 and $2,700 monthly respectively. The survey involved tabulating both apartments and single family houses offered on various online sites, principally Craigslist.

The trend of Burlington rents in spite of substantial rental inventory increases in recent years still are on the increase 2016-2019 with median 1-bedroom apartment a most significant average yearly increase of 7.9% with a median rent of $1,300 monthly.

The median prices tabulated for rentals offered results and average annual percentage increase 2016-2019: O BR (bedroom) Studio $1,050 2.8%; 1 BR $1,300 7.9%; 2 BR $1,478 3.2%; 3 BR $2,012 3.4%; and 4-or-more BR $2,975 8.0%.

Burlington City officials continue without evidence a tight housing market with little available inventory. This was in fact true for decades leading to about 2010 when student populations growth (UVM and Champlain College primarily) not only cut vacancy rates to about 1% or sometimes less, but impacted rental markets throughout Chittenden County as well as adjacent counties. Three factors changed from 2010: (1) new housing developments spurred in great part by the leadership of Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger were developed and developments already in the books will result in added supply for the next few years at least; (2) college populations peaked and are slowly declining combined with UVM and Champlain College housing more of their student population; and (3) housing development outside Burlington in other Chittenden County towns also relieved pressures on the Burlington market.

Changed demographics also play a major role and will continue to for the next decade or two at least as most Vermont counties are losing population, Chittenden County under 65 population has flat lined, and seniors comprise almost all the Chittenden County population increase of about a thousand residents a year. Growing senior residents presents the one growth area in housing demand here and throughout Vermont. Outside of the northwest part of Vermont, seniors resident numbers grow rapidly and non-senior population markedly declines. Statewide population from 2010 to date has increased by less than 1,000.

There is little reason to consider certain segments of the Burlington housing market which mostly operate of waiting lists and where units are never offered to the public—student housing being the exception. The Burlington rental market is composed of segments: (1) “private market”; (2) public housing and housing occupied by those with federal “Housing Choice Vouchers” which total about 2,000 units; (3) non-profit housing including units owned and managed by Champlain Housing Trust (CHT) and Cathedral (mostly aged restricted housing) well over 1,000 housing units; (4) college student rented private apartment units which comprise a submarket of well over 1,000 housing units.

There are essentially no vacancies, only waiting lists for federally assisted housing and non-profit housing (about 2,000 on CHT and Cathedral wait lists). The same applies to student housing as this population does take a certain portion of housing out of the “private market.”


Sunday, March 17, 2019

Safety First Before You Build a Parkway, $3.28 Million added Parkway Soil Bill?, and Parkway Climate Change


Safety, City taxpayers and climate change--all related to Champlain Parkway are the subject of three tweets this morning. It goes without saying that lack of any safe and separate walk and bike facilities in the Champlain Parkway is a non-starter when it comes to climate change emissions as travel along the Parkway corridor is only practical by motor vehicle (bus service also problematic as well as GMT terminal access), and even more important signals are a cesspool of climate emissions compared to a roundabout.

Here are the tweets:

Hero pilot Sully Sullenberger Saturday on 737 Max 8 crashes: “quality and safety pay for themselves...always better & cheaper to get it right than repair the damage after..." Re-design Champlain Pkwy. group targets no safe walk/bike facilities, no safe intersections


Tweet March 17
BTV facing $3.28 million taxpayer bill for Parkway contaminated soils—figure City Engineer Baldwin revealed at CCRPC Board last month? He says construction start 2019--Pine Street Coalition safety re-design cuts $43 million cost ~$8 million, likely soils too.
The fight to re-design the Champlain Parkway here in BTV from the start included climate change—absence of separate and safe walk and bike facilities, half mile of unneeded street, 1,000s of gallons gas wasted yearly at intersections. Safety 1st of course.

One Pedestrian or Bicyclist Plus 2 Car Occupants To Be Injured this Week

Data from the Winooski Corridor Transportation Corridor reveals real carnage on Burlington streets in addition to the fatality recorded about every 5-6 years, the latest in December Jonathan Jerome, a pedestrian who died in a crash on North Avenue.

Based on five years of data through 2017, about 150 injuries occur each year on Burlington streets, three per week. About 50 injuries or one a week are bicyclists and pedestrians in roughly equal numbers and 100 car occupants or two a week.

About 10% of all 150 annual injuries on BTV streets occur on North and South Winooski Avenues.  And 43% of all yearly crashes occurred at intersections.    On the 17 Winooski corridor  intersections 0.21 injuries occurred to bicyclists per year per intersection--no injuries in a half century have occurred at the six downtown VT roundabouts (Manchester Center, Middlebury and Montpelier).  A similar rate for Winooski intersections injuries per year--0.21 pedestrian injuries per year per intersection--occurred for the 2013-2017 survey period.  Comparison the Winooski 0.21 figure compares to 0.0032 injures per year per downtown VT roundabout.

For car occupants the Winooski Avenues figure is 0.13 injury per year per intersection (2.8 injuries yearly 17 intersections).   Car occupant injuries for the 6 downtown VT roundabouts:  0.013 per year (4 injuries recorded total for lifetime of the six roundabouts through about 2016).

In addition to crashes involving personal injury, the vast bulk of crashes are property damage only--about 1,200 average yearly, almost ten times the injuries, about 150, recorded.

These are metrics BTV Police Chief Del Pozo would likely love!

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

BURLINGTON, VT--NO NATIONAL TRAIN DAY TRAVEL!


MAY 11 NATIONAL TRAIN DAY—EXCEPT IN BURLINGTON AND WINOOSKI VERMONT
As a Burlington, VT resident and train enthusiast, got nice information on a free one-way May 11 trip on National Train Day to Bellows Falls, then an old fashioned train ride back to a ceremonial event in White River Jct., then on your own with a $12 Vermont special on the northbound Vermonter available—unless you live in Burlington and Winooski.
While lots of small cities and locations get connecting bus service from Amtrak City, not the Queen City in Vermont, just seven miles from the Essex Amtrak Station.  National Train Day on a May Saturday occurs when during weekends there is seriously deficient Chittenden Country Transportation Authority (CCTA) service on one of their busiest routes—Burlington-Winooski-Essex (Amtrak Station). 
The CCTA connection “problem” is a systematic issue relating to all regional transit agencies which provide limited or no connections at all stations stops of the two Vermont  Amtrak-supported trains which now cost $7 million in State dollars support yearly.  Every additional person who takes a trip on Amtrak in from a Vermont station directly reduces state dollars required to support the service. Yep, the mainline track in Vermont even got a $52 million upgrade to 80 mph operating speed level last year, a half hour cut from the timetable between St. Albans and Burlington to Brattleboro and Bellows Falls—but from Burlington to Amtrak at Essex on weekends, “you can’t get there from here.”   Well, you can, but the taxi fare with tip can amount to $20.  A taxi fare of $20 compares to about a 300-mile roundtrip Burlington-Brattleboro at the Vermont regular promotional rate of $24. 
(The Burlington-Amtrak connection compares, unfortunately, to connecting by taxi from North to South Station for about $15—you would think Amtrak would operate a shuttle service there.)
Now air travelers and bus travelers get far better treatment by CCTA.  Service to the airport operates at convenient times for most Greyhound bus connections seven days a week.  A traveler can connect on Saturdays to the airport from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. on Sunday.  And for the mid-afternoon arrival and departure of Megabus service to Boston, CCTA provides easy connection at the UVM Davis Center on the University Mall route. 
Seems like a service on Saturdays should be possible—the train southbound a.m. is generally right on time about 9:20 a.m. now and returns—again with much better on time performance at 8:17 p.m.—17 minutes after the last CCTA departure from Amtrak to Burlington!   No problem on with three early bus runs in time to catch the southbound.  This suggests there could be a connection both ways on Saturday—perhaps one about 9 p.m. assuring accommodation of some northbound delay which a rider is willing to take a chance on—preferably just a dedicated bus which departs five minutes after the northbound train arrival.  Otherwise how many want to bet on making connection to a bus ride that costs a dollar or so versus a $15-20 taxi ride? 
On Sunday, no problem at all, no bus service at all by CCTA to Essex/Amtrak.  On Sunday a skeletal service—a single run in the a.m. to align with the southbound Vermonter, a noontime run to service local needs, and a third trip leaving within five minutes of scheduled Amtrak arrival. 
Meanwhile, I plan to celebrate National Train Day on the day before—Friday—with a day trip to Brattleboro.  Maybe CCTA could celebrate National Train Day…with a bus to Burlington from the northbound Vermonter!

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

THE "BURLINGTON [VT] GOPHER"--LIGHT RAIL LINE



THE "BURLINGTON [VT] GOPHER"--LIGHT RAIL LINE

The outline for a Burlington (VT) Light Rail Line, the "Gopher", stemmed from a suggestion that the 1.5 mile corridor from the bustling and planned major development up two levels to the Church Street Marketplace and then clearly the two largest institutions--University of Vermont (UVM) and Fletcher Allen Health Center (FAHC)--overlooking the City continue to be best served by a pedestrian bus service.  The suggestion asserted that a light rail line alternative, a Gopher if you will, just could not be done because of the expense.....

Is light rail too expensive from the Waterfront to UVM/FAHC?  Is the money available, can it be available?  Good questions.  Yes, buses can be electric—Toronto has some nice ones.  Still, a bus is a bus—inferior to the performance and attractiveness to the customer.

Let’s look further into the cost, availability of funds, etc.
Regarding population, I am not a believer in the “Population Growth Elf” or the “Traffic Growth Elf” for Burlington or the County for that matter—population growth will continue to be mostly oldsters and continued immigration, much of it from distant points--not even global warming likely changes this for some decades.

Vermonters always show a certain sense of what their State and communities need for now and the future.  For the now past auto age, Vermonters, perhaps seeing the car was not the inevitable future, rejected in a statewide vote the rooftop highway during the depression.  It represented one prescient choice—the Green Mountain Parkway, which really could have literally divided the State east and west along the Route 100 corridor, bit the dust. (One casualty of that project was its inclusion in the plan of an equestrian trail in the highway right of way.)  Obviously the rooftop highway was affordable since it was funded wholly with federal funds.  What a gift!  (We may say the same for certain sections of the interstate system in the not too distant future.)  The Green Mountain Parkway idea would generate gales of laughter today—as would recently the Circumferential Highway, the “Circ”, does some sixty years later (well laughter from Burlingtonians at least).

The Champlain Parkway project now shows the same shagginess as the Circ—the original now “Parkwayette” $37 million project construction now devolves down to about $25-$30 million with the City policy now to “finish” the unaddressed connection from Pine to Battery with some sensible and simple street segments.  Even the fate of the original downsized “Parkwayette” from the end of Pine to Lakeshore Drive remains murky—note the 29% decline in traffic on Pine Street since 1989 in the vicinity of the old Vermont Transit terminal (and still declining like practically all streets feeding the Burlington downtown from the outside, the Traffic Growth Elf not to be seen at work here)!

Given those numbers as a background, consider that each year Chittenden County gets a quarter of the new federal highway largess of over $200 million to fund various highway, walk and bike projects, and transit.  Amtrak right now is funded only with State dollars.  The Chittenden boodle is about $50 million new money each year—a third of those funds, say $15 million a year could be used for capital and operating funds for transit projects with up to 80% federal-20% state/local match.  We get $50 million a year, a half billion dollars a decade to dole out for various purposes in transportation.  The region even dumped about the equivalent of one year of apportionments into the ill-fated planning and design of the abandoned Circ.  Vermont Digger cites the figure of $40 million in planning funds devoted to that expired effort. 

In regard to a two-track roughly 1.5 light rail line from the waterfront/Union Station to UVM/FAHC via the Marketplace using a modern trolley car like those in Toronto or the San Francisco Muni line.  Assume operating every day about the same hours as bus routes with 10-minute peak hour headways (requires three trolley units and one spare).  The yearly operating costs likely equal or slightly below those buses.  Light rail cars clearly provide a larger, more comfortable, higher bike loading capacity than a bus.  So regarding cost, there are two key cost elements really, the initial capital cost of the line and the transit vehicles.  (Of course trolleys can operate in multiple units—some yet to be accomplished using buses.)  The transit vehicles have a lifespan of 30-40 years, really endless based on the demand on ancient trolleys operating on the Market Street line to Fisherman’s Wharf in San Francisco.  Let’s sort of admit these cost more than buses but because they draw more riders than buses, the cost per rider (support) evens out or even bends to the trolley side.

So, it all comes down to the capital costs and how to finance them.  The two studies in the 1990s looked at longer routes, to Winooski, South Burlington and the airport.   The “Trunk” section in the 1999 was the segment from the waterfront to UVM/FAHC via the Marketplace (College or Main were the options). If one takes the “Trunk” cost from the 1999 study, the capital cost for the track, catenary, etc. amounts to—and the figure seems scary--$60 million with adjustment for inflation.  These estimates need to be revisited but so would the route of light rail in view of the new plan being developed for the waterfront.  But spread over 25 years (like bonding for an new highway or passenger rail project) amounts to about $3 million a year.  The cost for two Amtrak trains this year $4.5 state dollars serving less than 100,000 passengers, far fewer than the current College Street shuttle operating 200 days a year and far below a 365 day light rail service.

Not all is lost here, one can apply for a separate capital grant and operating funds with an 80 federal-20 state split of the capital cost (say $3 million annually) and the operating cost of about $1.5 million—the shuttle would be free as it is now.  That funding would not come from the annual Chittenden County apportionments of federal funds.  Second, you could use some of that apportionment to Chittenden to fund either capital and/or operating costs.  Finally—and this is important—what do you think will happened to property values along the waterfront and Lake Street with a full time light rail service available making it a ten minute ride to the Marketplace, Library, Roxy, City Market—and five minutes further to UVM, the Health Center, and FAHC?  And what will be the reasonable amount of tax revenues from the presence of this light rail service—certainly a portion of the “trolley tax yield” fairly goes to the operation and capital accounts of light rail.  Can a bus do that?


Consider the other benefits of light rail.  For the driver-operators, the task is far easier—no steering wheel, rapid acceleration and stopping compared to vehicles with rubber tires—overall far less stress and strain.  For riders no more listening to the noise of engines straining up the grades.  And all those bicycles we can entrain!   If you want to experience some waste of light rail investment in terms of passenger usage, take a ride on some of the lines in Sacramento or San Jose—the Burlington Gopher will surely outshine them just about anytime.

Let’s get a light rail “re-plan” going and apply for the funds, get support from the Metro towns, etc.  Seems cheap to me….

Saturday, January 5, 2013

NO ROUNDABOUTS--NO SAFE URBAN WALKING


IMPROVING BUSY BURLINGTON AREA INTERSECTIONS FOR WALKERS MEANS ADDRESSING ROUNDABOUT CONVERSIONS OR STRONG TRAFFIC CALMING

            No roundabouts--no safe urban walking 

After observing early planning for “improvements” to intersections on South Burlington’s Shelburne Road and Burlington’s Colchester Ave./Prospect St./Pearl St. one gets a clear view that walkers receive no safety boost and walker fatalities and serious injuries will continue unabated.

The intersections studied in a preliminary fashion over the past few months appear headed for new traffic signals which tend to orchestrate injuries and fatalities, not mostly end them.  Modern roundabouts, that new technology employing stone-age materials, cuts all fatalities and serious injuries by about 90% with single lane roundabout on average cut walker injuries by about 90%.  From another standpoint, any intersection but a roundabout or strong traffic calming generates serious injuries and fatalities overall by an average of 900%.

In regard to Shelburne Road, a Price Chopper employee on her way home died in a walker crash at the Burlington signal intersection with Home Avenue adjacent to the South Burlington border.  The long term plan calls would require two lane roundabouts which the South Burlington consultant rejected as they would require expensive right of way—and the consultant asserted he was not sure about two lane roundabouts and walker safety.  No walker has yet died in the U.S. and Canada after about 12,000 to 14,000 “roundabout years”, duplicating the experience in France with their over 30,000 roundabouts where about one walker fatality is recorded per 15,000 roundabouts each—about a quarter of U.S. and French roundabouts are multi-lane.

The numbers at Colchester Ave./Pearl St./Prospect St.(north and south) include in a five year period two walker crashes and three bicycle crashes.   The intersection boasts one of the highest crash rates in the State.   Without any serious consideration, it appears a roundabout will not even get analyzed for placement at this intersection even though a serious injury was recorded last year at Union St. and Pearl St. and Sam Lapointe received fatal injuries at Colchester Avenue and Barrett Streets. 

A recent AAA study proved highway injuries and fatalities a higher cost to metro areas than congestion and in the case of large metros the differential is more than two to one.  AAA suggests a White House conference on safety and adoption there of a “zero fatality rate” goal for the nation.   For walkers—and they must get prime consideration in any urban area in terms of service and safety—the sidewalk network provides a high level of safety along street segments but only a roundabout or strong traffic calming (like the Church Street Marketplace intersections, for example) provides safety and comfort for crossings. 


Even the Vermont Strategic Highway Safety Plan contains only one infrastructure investment among seven safety initiatives to improve safety: roundabouts at intersections. 

Then what to do in the case of Shelburne Road and the Burlington Road intersections?  The first requirement in both cases must be evaluation of feasible roundabout designs as part of any scoping study.  Since a fatality cost gets a Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) social cost value of $6.1 million (1999 dollars), right of way and related costs may well come in quite high—but so does the cost of a life (FHWA uses a figure of $126,000 for an injury).  So far, no recognized roundabout design firms or designer has been involved in either of the cities studies even though most of the handful of pioneering roundabout practitioners since the era began in North America in 1991 have undertaken one or more tasks in Vermont, such as workshops and training, feasibility studies, and actual design or design assistance one or more  of the nine roundabouts now in place here. 

Note that with two states and two Canadian province transportation departments (including New York) adopted the roundabout the standard intersection treatment, and Vermont’s first in the nation requires that roundabouts be considered at dangerous intersections.  Governor Peter Shumlin in 2002 entered the historic first language in the transportation bill.  The recognition of roundabouts value over signals has been affirmed by adopted laws, policies, and practice not just through research.

In the case of the intersection at the corner of the UVM green, a roundabout which promises to reduce walker injury substantially (as well as car occupants) and afford a modest increase in bicyclist safety may not provide all desirable left hand movements offered by a signal—something that can only be determined by scoping.  A mini roundabout can also be considered.  But, if our first concern is safety at intersections a honest analysis by a competent roundabout design team needs to take place at the scoping level.  Then—and only then—can any citizen process, armed with the complete information, make a truly informed decision on what path to proceed to improve the safety and service at the Colchester Ave./Pearl St./Prospect St. intersection.  Ditto for Shelburne Road and other intersections to be evaluated in the future.

Consultants rejected a roundabout from further consideration at the Burlington intersection because of an “unacceptable footprint.”   Interestingly, there exists plenty of right-of-way at the two intersections along Colchester Avenue, Fletcher Allen Health Care entrance and then East Avenue.  A final aside, while a list of Vermont roundabouts I have maintained has included the traffic circle in Winooski, I am now delisting it.  Normal practice calls for a two lane roundabout to be no more than 180 feet in it largest diameter versus the roughly 500 feet, top to bottom, of Winooski “circle.”  Again, the Winooski design never received analysis and scoping involving a competent, experienced roundabout designer. 

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

AMERICANS ABANDON THE CAR


WHY VERMONTERS—AND AMERICANS—ABANDONING THEIR CAR BECAME A TREND FOR NOW AND THE FUTURE AND NOT AN ABERRATION
...or why bus, commuter rail, and Amtrak grow and car travel stalls and slides backward
If economics historically gets tagged with being the “dismal science” then transportation economics deserves placemet as the muck at the bottom of the economic swamp. For a century transportation economics mostly remained deep inside the academic walls. Moving goods mostly addressed costs and efficiencies moving a carload of freight from factory to port to a destination whether that be a coal fired electric plant or after warehousing and braking the carload down, delivery by a firm like UPS to a customer on main street.
When dealing with moving people from place to place, transportation economics mostly examined large metropolitan areas for where to put the next subway stop, bus route, or airport hub. Household transport economics started and ended from the advent of the car with the household car—the numbers of car per household, annual growth in car travel, new holiday car travel records, how high could driver licensing percentage could go among the driving age population, highway crash statistics, etc.
But beginning about 1990 a shift began, a tectonic shift with more and more statistics showing a slowing—and now even a decline—in car travel. Statistics now show a drop of young people getting drives licenses in a 15 year study 1995-2010, and in Burlington, VT a sudden abandoning by about 500 commuters to and from the Queen City for the commuter “Link” services operated by the Chittenden Country Transportation Authority (CCTA). Oh, one more statistic—nationally the median household expenditure for transportation which reached as high as 19-20 percent at times dropped to 16.0 in 2008-2009, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Behind the tectonic shifts, there appear to be two extremely powerful economic forces which together determine the economics of the household at work. And, those two powerful economic forces tell us we have not seen anything yet on the drive by households to shed high cost driving for either public transportation or just not making certain trips altogether. Those two forces are: basic wages and the cost of housing. The best measure of a nation's income and trends comes in the “average manufacturing hourly wage” data. That average wage peaked about 1970 and since 1980 dipped slightly during the interim and now sits about the same level $19.14 (August 2012, average hourly manufacturing wage for “production and non-supervisory employees”). Simply, little has changed in the income of the typical worker in manufacturing in the U.S. in over three decades.
The second major factor affecting transportation for households is the cost of housing. Here the news gets even worse. From 1980 to 2009 in constant 2000 dollars, median rent (usually a two bedroom unit) increased from $376 to $689 monthly, 83%. So, no real increase in wages for three decades and housing cost rising over 80%. What do these have to do with transportation? Or with households cutting back with expensive local transportation represented by the car and its 50-cent-a-mile typical expense (the current reimbursement Federally approved rate)? Simply there is a very strong economic force in the decision making of households to minimize the joint cost of housing and transportation, the two areas that consume about half (49% for families in 2011) of the average households. So we have experienced three decades of flat manufacturing wages and during that time an 80% increase in housing costs as measured by the median rents. Finally, the periodic national travel survey reveals that from 2001 through 2009 for every age group travel by car declined with he largest decline in miles of travel, an average of 20%, came in the under-30 age group.


Where does that leave a household who for a long time experienced the pressures of rising housing costs and no wage increases—everything else being equal. Reducing housing costs represent a far more difficult short term possibility (long term too!) to change than transportation costs. When an opportunity to more than halve the cost of a necessary trip—getting to and from work, for example—it is no surprise why a commuter between Burlington and Montpelier chooses a Link commuter bus costing 10 cents a mile versus solo driving at 50 cents a mile—a daily saving of $32 based on the 80-mile roundtrip by Link service priced at $8 and $40 for the solo drive. Finally, with these two factors at work it comes as little surprise that the growth of outer suburbs of metropolitan areas over the past two decades suddenly ended and that in many metropolitan areas the long term decline in city centers ended an in many cases central cities gained population. The housing and transportation cost relationship fully explains these two metropolitan developments.
What's more there appears little change in the future of the increasing housing-transportation cost to the household—the household faces increased housing cost over and above inflation and car travel costs doing the same. Perhaps this relationship explains why when the Boston area transit agency increased fares on bus-subway-commuter rail services by 23% early this summer there was no drop in passenger numbers. The increase in public transit fares were insufficient for a typical household commuter or transit user to switch to an alternative, such as the car, and those who used transit were not “cruising” or taking public transport just to see the countryside, they were making mostly necessary trips to work, professional appointments, school, etc.
We can expect that there will be a continued abandoning of the car for necessary trips—and even for discretionary trips—if reasonably priced service alternatives are provided—right now that is really just about any public transit, including Amtrak, which generally enjoys high single digit and double digit growth each year.