Why? Why? Why?

During the past months I have held back from looking at the intersection numbers along the [Burlington, VT Champlain] Parkway because quite frankly they do not reach the levels found on our busier streets and in particular the North Avenue highest trafficked section--VT 127 to Ethan Allen Parkway--which do reach near the limit of the single lane roundabout.  (Compared to any signal or signs at busy intersections, the single lane roundabout drops vehicle occupant, walk, and bicyclist serious and fatal injuries about 90%.)  

The current and 2028 numbers for each street section and each intersection are readily available in the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) traffic chapter for the Champlain Parkway on the Department of Public Works websit. 

Still looking at the Pine/Maple intersection where anyone familiar with that intersection well knows waiting 5-7 minutes going north on Pine during the afternoon peak is routine.  Good time to get some internet time when on the Montpelier-Burlington Link!

Still, a detailed look at the p.m. peak hours at the Maple/Pine intersection for 2028 with the new signal as planned there dismays.  Why?   Well, the traffic numbers 13 years hence are slightly above those today at Montpelier's downtown roundabout, Keck Circle, where peak hour delay a.m. and p.m. can be counted on a hand with three fingers. 

Yes, a roundabout--checked out by one of the foremost roundabout designers in the world as part of the AARP Workshop in September 2013 as both workable and feasible--would likely delay the average vehicle on a Friday drive time about 5-6 seconds in what is called "stop delay."   This is not a fairy tale, the Parkway consultant, CHA will tell your their Keene, N.H. Main Street roundabout dropped the Winchester Street leg adjacent to Keene State College from six minutes to six seconds during drive times compared to a proposed signal.    

What in the world is wrong with our Department of Public Works that it will not install a roundabout at Pine/Maple next spring at the 10% of the cost of the Pine/Lakeside signal upgrade of $419,000?  Why not?

A traffic signal at Pine/Maple--part of the current Parkway design--will likely delay an average vehicle 20-30 seconds, about ten times the wait time at a roundabout there.  What is far, far worse, the signal will generate more crashes and injuries over and above the four-way stop now in place (the four-way stop, next to the roundabout the safest intersection).   So the signal promises a 20-30 second wait for everyone (pedestrians face no significant delay today) as well as an extra crash and injury or two each year.  Why?

Burlington already has the "dirty 17" intersections (13 signalized) averaging a pedestrian injury each per year and so the City in its wisdom clearly is on a crash course to install another signalized intersection (one of five new ones on the Parkway) sure to add to the City's transportation unsafety.  Why?   

      Tony Redington 

 

(The message above sent to the Commissioners of the Department of Public Works does not mention the tens of thousands of gallons of fuel saved and associated pollutants deduced, scenic quality, etc.)

-- 

Tony Redington

Champlain Parkway:  Stop!  Re-Evaluate! Re-Imagine!

Senior Boom Population in Vermont II--More Detail

Boom and Bust Sweeping Vermont—A Population Tsunami of More Seniors, Children and Working Age Residents in Decline

At a Burlington governor candidates forum November 2, 2015, all expressed concern over the need for more working age population—a Republican and a Democrat called for the State to grow its population to 700,000 to provide for economic stability.   The candidates face a Vermont tide of declining working age population, a doubling of senior residents, and collapse of school aged children numbers during the current 2010-2030 period.  The 2010-2030 State average estimate of total growth of 19,500, 3.1%, barely pushes the population needle from the 2010 number, 625,700 to 645,300 in 2030.  The estimated growth of senior age residents, 4.446 yearly, exceeds  the total population of towns like Stowe, Richmond, Rutland Town or Manchester. 

The tide of an aging population paired with declining non-senior population remains typical for slow growth areas like New England and the upper mid-West—with Vermont’s senior population growth typical of all states.  

Vermont now moves into the second quarter of a 20 year period of population decline in all key age groups but one—a senior population which almost doubles 2010-2030, an average estimate from 88,900 residents 65-years-and over to a 2030 total of 180,500.  The average population projection for 2030 places the total State population of 645,300 with seniors comprising 25.9% compared to 14.6% share in the 2010 Census.  

The radical change in Vermont population trends since the 2010 Census include a year of actual decline and for 2014 estimated total population declines in nine of fourteen Vermont counties.  In the State projections averaged, the decline in 0-19 population is 27,100 and for the prime working age 20-64 42,200.  

The two official State population estimates averaged does show a 3.1% growth or 19,500 2010-2030.  But even Chittenden County which accounts for over half the 3.1% growth for the State loses in the all the key age groups under 65: -10.8% in under 19 aged, -19.7% college aged 20-24, and -4.6 in the prime working aged population 20-64.

While Chittenden County declines in the younger population reflect a major departure from historic patterns going back a half century, the numbers neighboring county Addison startle: 0-19 age -35.9%, 20-64 age -20.7, overall under 65 22.5%.  Seniors 65 and over?  Up 112.2% from 5,100 to an estimated 10,800. 

This analysis averages the two growth estimates, Scenarios A and B, from “Vermont Population Estimates 2010-2030” published by the State of Vermont in 2013, and the report may viewed at http://dail.vermont.gov/dail-publications/publications-general-reports/vt-population-projections-2010-2030

Senior Population Tsunami, Non-Senior Drought Hits Vermont

Population of More Seniors and Fewer Non-seniors Tide Begins to Sweep Across Vermont

At a Burlington governor candidates forum November 2, 2015, all expressed concern about the need for more  Vermont working age population—both a Republican and a Democrat called for the State to grow its population to 700,000 to provide for economic stability. The candidates face a Vermont tide of declining working age population, a doubling of senior residents, and collapse of school aged children numbers during the current 2010-2030 period. The 2010-2030 State average estimate of total growth of 19,500, 3.1%, barely pushes the population needle from the 2010 number, 625,700 to 645,300 in 2030.

Whatever the numbers, the tide of an aging population and stable or declining non-senior population remains typical for slow growth areas like New England and the upper mid-West—with senior population growth typical of all states.

Vermont now moves into the second quarter of a 20 year period of population decline in all key age groups but one—a senior population which almost doubles 2010-2030, an average estimated additional 88,900 residents 65-years-and over to a 2030 total of 180,500. The average population projection for 2030 places the total State population of 645,300 with seniors 25.9% of that total compare to 14.6% in the 2010 Census.

The radical change in Vermont population trends since the 2010 Census include a year of actual decline and for 2014 estimated total population declines in nine of fourteen Vermont counties. In the State projections averaged, the decline in 0-19 population is 27,100 and 20-64 42,200.

While the official State population estimates do show a 3.1% growth or 19,500 2010-2030. But even Chittenden County which accounts for over half the 3.1% growth for the State loses in the all the key age groups under 65: -10.8% in under 19 aged, -19.7% college aged 20-24, and -4.6 in the prime working aged population 20-64.

While Chittenden County declines in the younger population reflect a major departure from historic patterns going back a half century, the numbers neighboring county Addison startle: 0-19 age -35.9%, 20-64 age -20.7, overall under 65 22.5%. Seniors 65 and over? Up 112.2% from 5,100 to an estimated 10,800.

This analysis averages the two growth estimates, Scenarios A and B, from “Vermont Population Estimates 2010-2030” published by the State of Vermont in 2013, and the report may viewed at http://dail.vermont.gov/dail-publications/publications-general-reports/vt-population-projections-2010-2030

More Vermont Roundabout Corridors Arriving!

More Roundabout Corridors Coming to Vermont!

Roundabouts, about 3,500 strong now in the U.S. and Canada, now arrive in bunches, 3, 4, 5, and even more. Three or more roundabouts along a mile or two qualifies as a “roundabout corridor” and Vermont's first in Manchester completed in 2012 soon gets company with two planned and others in the offing. The first five roundabout corridor along Brattleboro's Putney Road corridor now reaches the design stage with VTrans. The commercial retail will include full walk/bike facilities along what amounts to a business strip of retail and food outlets. The business community wanting to compete effectively with nearby Keene, NH pushed for making the corridor an attractive, congestion free environment for all modes.  (Keene, NH boasts five going on six roundabouts in the City including one just outside on the road to the airport.)

Roundabouts cut serious and fatal injuries about 90% according to an Insurance Institute for Highway Safety study. And a recent study of over 50 U.S. roundabout corridors in place found little difference in through traffic travel times as reduced delay at intersections overcame the positive result of reduced speeds through the corridor.  Burlington's North Avenue Corridor Plan adopted last October converts at least three signalized intersections to roundabouts along a mixed use corridor. Four intersections comprising all of Montpelier's Main Street in the downtown found roundabout feasible include the oldest roundabout in the northeast, Keck Circle at Main and Spring Streets and a second intersection at Barre Street in pre-design, an intersection which enables final connection of Winooski East and Winooski West transportation paths (bikepaths fully lit and plowed in the winter).

A second three roundabout corridor planed along Depot Street (VT 11) in Manchester has an anchor roundabout at the Main Street over the Batttenkill River. This corridor would complete making Manchester reaching signal-free status.

In Burlington an AARP Vermont workshop report and the Burlington Walk Bike Council supports a roundabout corridor along both Pine Street and the Champlain Parkway overall about ten roundabouts.  

               

Burlington's (VT) Walk Crash Record--When did the Canary Stop Singing?

The recent revelation in the Burlington Walk Bike Master Plan process, planBTV Walk Bike, of the “dirty 17” Burlington intersections with nearly one walker crash per year average for 2011-2014 brings to mind the silence of a canary signifying dangerous gas buildup in a coal mine. When did the canary stop signaling here?

A little arithmetic translates the four years of data, 61 intersection-related walk crashes, to 150 injured pedestrians for the decade plus 2.5 fatalities. Burlington recorded one fatality on a crosswalk in 2011 and another walker died in a crash on the Sheraton/Staples crosswalk just beyond the City boundary in So. Burlington last fall. The 150 estimated injuries suffered by those on foot for the decade equals about one per hundred City households.

The 150 injured pedestrians estimate applies to only the “dirty 17” intersections—many more occur yearly at other City intersections.

Burlington prides itself in being “pedestrian friendly” and certainly the Marketplace precinct and Bikepath deserve that raring.. But for residents who must ply the other streets of City including those needed to access the Marketplace and other key destinations—City Market, Fletcher Free Library, and neighborhood stores, for examples—conditions remain less than friendly.

Since speed remains the primary factor in frequency of walk mode crashes and injury severity, a real reduction in speeds at the “dirty 17” and other City intersections must be the first and foremost way to reduce injuries and fatality to those who move on foot. Education and enforcement cannot overcome the speed factor, safe infrastructure comes first. The one and only treatment which reduces the existing rate of walk mode injuries about 90% at intersections is the single lane roundabout. It does the same for walk safety at intersections as does installing a sidewalk along street sections, also a walk mode reducer of injuries by about 90%.

Most of the “dirty 17” intersections can be converted to roundabouts (American Association of Retired Persons [AARP] advocates converting signals to roundabouts for reducing senior driving fatalities). The U.S. dropping from first to 19^th in safety among nations in significant part can be explained by its failure to rapidly adopt roundabout technology. There are other traffic calming measures which can be used to reduce speeds—medians which divert the vehicle straight path, raised crosswalks, speed humps/bumps, and similar measures. Measures which do little to diminish speeds—signs, flashing lights and pavement markings.

“What if” the “dirty 17” were converted to roundabouts, what would the the likely result? Well, instead of 61 injuries per year at the 17 intersections, the number would be six and those injuries less severe on average. Fatalities? Instead of 2.5 per decade estimated above, the number would drop to one every four decades!

The American Automobile Association (AAA) in a study found the costs of injuries were far higher than congestion costs in metropolitan areas. The Federal Highway Administration uses dollar figures to estimate the cost of a highway crash injury--$126,000 in 2009 and a separate figure for a fatality “Value of a Statistical Life” (fancy way to say value of your life) which in the most recent policy ranges between $5.2 and $12.9 million. The life value is taken from a number of economic studies. AAA used the high value in their metropolitan congestion versus vehicle crash costs analysis.

Taking the $126,000 per walker injured and $12.9 million for a pedestrian fatality and applying that to the estimated 150 walker injuries for the decade and 2.5 walk fatalities for Burlington this decade provides a sense of the dimension of the cost of pedestrian crashes at the “dirty 17” Burlington intersections 2010-2020: $44.7 million total.

What Burlington needs to concentrate on are “safe” streets. Then there remains the subject of bicycles crashes in the City...

Burlington's "Dirty 17" Most Pedestrian Injuries 2011-2014

The Burlington, VT “Dirty 17”: Walk Mode Injury Generating Intersections 2011-2014

During the 2011-2014 period, 17 Burlington intersections generated on average 0.9 walk mode injury crashes yearly. Of the “dirty 17”, 13 were signalized with at least two with the highest technical designs with a dedicated pedestrian phase, and four were stop controlled. Every one of the five intersections along South Winooski Avenue parallel and accessing the Marketplace made the “dirty 17” list.

Any of these intersections replaced by a single lane roundabout (or mini roundabout) which reduces walk mode injures by about 90 percent, would drop one injury a year predicted to one injury per decade as well as a reduction in injury severity. The corollary: replacing a roundabout with a signal or sign control on average will increase pedestrian injuries by about 800%. Injuries recorded 2011-2014 are in parenthesis. Any intersection recording more than one pedestrian injury a decade (except those in the Marketplace area bounded by Battery St./Main St./Pearl St./So. Winooski Ave. and a few others) needs to be of special concern and if feasible converted to a roundabout. Further, the South Winooski Avenue intersections parallel to the Marketplace demand attention and part of any improvements to those intersections for pedestrian safety should include speed management designs.

The intersections along South Winooski Avenue between Pearl and Main Streets certainly have both a heavy volume of vehicles and pedestrians crossing. The Murray St./North St. crossing is noteworthy (as is Shelburne St. “rotary”) for bordering elementary school grounds.

1. So. Winooski Ave./Bank St. (6)
2. Archibald St./Intervale St. (5)
3. So. Winooski Ave./College St. (5)
4. So. Winooski Ave./Main St. (5)
5. Main St./St. Paul St. (5) Kaye Borneman, 43, driving vehicle, in fatal crash 2010.
6. Riverside Ave.--Intervale St. to Hill St. (4)
7. North St./near Murray St. (4)
8. No. Prospect St./Loomis St. (4)
9. No. Winooski Ave./Pearl St. (4)
10. So. Winooski Ave./Cherry St. (3)
11. No. Winooski Ave./North St. (3)
12. Pine St./Lakeside Ave. (3)
13. Colchester Ave./Barrett St. (2) Bruce “Sam” Lapointe, of Winooski, fatally injured on Barrett St. crosswalk 2012.
14. Colchester Ave./East Ave. (2)
15. Pine St./Locust St. (2) Critical injury 2014 on “rapid flashing beacon” (installed about a year before) crosswalk.
16. Shelburne St. “Rotary” (2)
17. Shelburne St./Home Ave. (2) Linda Ente, 48, Winooski, supermarket employee, fatally injured on crosswalk 1998.  
    
    
    Note: injury data from draft documents of the Burlington walk bike master plan process planBTV Walk Bike.

"Intersection of Death" Lives at Least until 2021

Shelburne Street Roundabout--Burlington, VT

A contact Monday (September 14, 2015) with the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) section handling the design and construction of the Shelburne Street Roundabout at the “rotary” intersection in Burlington finds the Chittenden County's first roundabout on a busy public street now scheduled for construction 2020-2021.  The project is for safety improvement as the intersection has a high accident rate history.

As this intersection is one of the "dirty 17" in Burlington identified this year averaging one walk mode injury per year, the period from the time base design was completed in 2010 to actual roundabout constructed, 2021 about six individuals crossing the intersection will suffer injuries.  

VTrans engineer Michael Lacroix explained there will be some exploratory work related to underground utilities at the Shelburne St./So. Willard St./St. Paul St./Locust St. shortly but that work does not signal construction. The intersection project also addresses easing entry and exit to Ledge Street just three or four car lengths south of the roundabout as designed. The 100% federally funded roundabout with safety program funds involves a single contract for construction with the first year, 2020, re-configuration and any new/upgraded various utilities which criss-cross the intersection, and 2021 the actual construction of the roundabout. Lacroix said there is no truth to a recent rumor in Burlington that a design contract send out to bid found no takers.

In fact the project with the roundabout design completed in 2010 following the final public meetings and reports in 2008 still requires time consuming right-of-way acquisition before the bid plans are prepared, the bidding process takes place, contractor selected and construction begins. Interestingly the first northeastern U.S. roundabout in Montpelier took three years from authorization by the City of a committee to opening for traffic, development period which included a twelve month pause for addition of funds to the City budget for the project.

At the present pace the project, first discussed and began its development process in 2002, will be completed after 19 years. Meanwhile the high level of walk, bike and vehicle injuries and crashes the roundabout chosen to address continue. In the four year period 2011-2014 two pedestrian crashes occurred. The intersection ranks among the “dirty 17” with highest walk mode injuries in a draft report from the planBTV Walk Bike master planning project now under way. The average frequency of walk mode injuries at the “dirty 17” intersections reaches almost one per intersection per year. A single lane roundabout based on Vermont roundabout experience and research findings can be expected to reduce injuries for those who walk, bike or travel by vehicle—particularly serious and fatal injuries—by about 90%.