COMMUTER PROGRAMS AND INTERSTATE TRAFFIC IMPACTS

IF ABOUT 260 BURLINGTON-MONTPELIER, VT COMMUTERS TRAVEL BY “LINK” BUS THIS YEAR, THEN WHY SO MANY CARS ON INTERSTATE I 89....NOT

Earlier this week this Blog described the phenomenal growth of commuters on “Link” bus services since being introduced about 2005 with words like “astounding” and “astonishing,” as symbolic of a seismic shift from car travel in Vermont and New England. And in a changed commuting environment this Blog has also advocated for immediate installation of commuter rail services in the commuter corridors leading to and from Burlington as the first step in establishing a statewide rail passenger network.

A parallel finding in a Blog this week found the joint transportation services agency formed by three major employers recorded employee surveys results of a solo driving decline of 15% 2000-2010. The “troika” of Burlington employers—Fletcher Allen Health Care, University of Vermont and Champlain College--employment totals 10,000 workers.

If so many commuters ride the Link services now—about 225 this year daily in the Burlington-Montpelier corridor alone—and employees of three major Burlington have switched to everything from bicycling to carpooling and public transit, then why are so many cars still traveling the I 89 corridor between Burlington and Montpelier? Well, in actuality, as one would expect, traffic numbers decline on I 89 since 2000 on a key leg reflect in part the switch of solo drivers to bus and car sharing. The Link services and the “troika” programs designed to decease solo driving to some degree are reflected in traffic numbers on I 89.

From a 2006 average through April this year, traffic along I 89 between Middlesex and Montpelier declined 7 percent. This stretch of interstate contains a minimum of short distance “local” traffic and mostly longer distance trips in the 40 mile Burlington-Montpelier corridor. Even a look at a longer interval shows a tiny annual 0.2% gain in traffic numbers starting 15 years ago in 1997 to April this year.

Another key question is how a decline of 225 commuters daily impacts the “peak” travel as commuter buses primarily service the 7-9 am and 4-6 pm peak hours, the times most traffic engineers look at because these are the “congestion” hours on the highway system. Again, what is the the impact of 225 commuters switching from car travel? Assume half switched to a Link service versus a solo drive and the other half from a carpool of three—the impact of those 225 represent a 9% decline in peak hour travel on I 89 between Middlesex and Montpelier where 12-month daily traffic numbered 24,151 this April. The idea that the rugged individual Vermonter would never give up the sacred car to take a bus to work truly belongs to the mythology of yesteryear.  (Note all 225 commuters are ascribed to a peak period of 10% of total travel in one direction.)

In summary, the daily 22 Link commuter service buses in the Burlington-Montpelier corridor clearly contribute to the depressing or declining of I 89 traffic numbers and that impact amounts to a sizable proportion. Transportation planners and policy makers mostly gave lip service in the past to “demand” management centered on employer programs and public transit impacting car travel, often dismissing impacts as being insignificant, most probably in the low single digit territory—no more! Those assumptions must deal with the new reality that public transportation and programs to divert workers from solo driving can and are having a substantial impact. And workers and employers alike seek alternatives to costly commuting by car. With Vermont car traffic expected to drop slightly this decade that decline will likely be accelerated by growing efforts of employers and public programming aimed at reducing commuting costs, saving energy and cutting pollution. Alternatives to solo driving offer less stressful and safer travel choices. It is apparent expanding public transit makes employment and businesses accessible to a working population increasingly resistant to using an automobile to get from here to there.

TRAFFIC DOWN, DOWN, DOWN IN DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON (VT)

TRAFFIC DOWN, DOWN, DOWN IN DOWNTOWN BURLINGTON (AND SOME OTHER CITY STREETS TOO!)

The myth of the traffic growth even when it crashes remains a staple mantra of planners and engineers—remember the Circumferential Highway anyone? Burlington (VT) perpetuates the myth in its downtown planning process, PlanBTV. A key base PlanBTV report claims--without providing evidence--that vehicle travel will increase one percent a year for the foreseeable future.

Now a couple of decades ago—the 1980s—found Vermont and New England vehicle travel growth up over 30 percent—but after the 1980s the sharp downtrend started leading to a 3% growth in the first decade of this century with Rhode Island actually turning negative. New England car travel growth even trailed of population growth just over 3%.

Vermonters can reasonably expect vehicle miles of travel turning negative this decade for a number of reasons. Urban Vermont leads the downtrend with then Vermont Agency of Transportation (VAOT) providing a five-year “short term” traffic factor for urban areas for planning purposes—the factor for a decade has remained about 0% change for planning purposes.

Take a closer look at Burlington and you find, for example, that one of the three corridors feeding the downtown, Route 127, the “northern connector” hit its top numbers in 1989 and since then, over two decades, declined steadily averaging -1.1% a year with a daily volume of 14,300 last year, down 21.3% for the period 1989-2011 with both 2010 and 2010 in the negative. No growth here.

How about the southern gateway, Route 7? Route 7 shows minor growth or decline over two decades at the I 189 interchange. And, I 189 itself since 1992 has added a puny few cars annually, averaging an increase on a per decade basis 30 more cars on and 30 more cars off, 0.3% growth per year or a 3% per decade rate of increase. Most of the short road sections around the I 189 interchange on Route 7 peaked about two decades ago. No growth here.

Finally take a close look at three downtown street sections: (1) Main Street from St. Paul Street to Battery Street; (2) Battery South to King Street; and (3) Battery Street north to College Street. Any growth on these three segments? From a base of about 1990 to 2010—two decades—the Main Street section daily numbers dropped 34%, Battery from Main to King down 21%, and Battery Main to College 10%. Really, will the drop in car travel ever stop around here?

It is important to emphasize that even car travel downtrends mean some roads will increase while most decline. For example, several interstate segments which carry about a fifth of all highway traffic statewide do show some growth.

Roundabout Potential

In terms the actual numbers each of the intersections in the downtown—St. Paul/Main Streets, Battery/Main Streets, Battery/King Streets and Battery/College Streets—all have vehicle counts which suggest a single lane roundabout with its safety for walkers can be considered. Single lane roundabouts offer a 90% reduction in walker injuries and about the same benefit to car occupants. The roundabout holds the key to a highway “zero fatality” rate policy which is advocated by AAA since no other technology can reduce speeds along typical streets and highways as well as radically improving safety at intersections. And single lane roundabouts even in the eventuality of increased traffic generally outdo the performance of what really is obsolete technology, traffic signalization.

So when the planners and engineers talk about increased car travel numbers, ask them to provide the data and reasoning that supports their claims.

VERMONT LEADS NEW ENGLAND GASOLINE USE REDUCTION--CAN 1990 GHG EMISSION LEVELS BE ATTAINED??

THREE NEW ENGLAND STATES LED BY VERMONT (8% REDUCTION!) CUT GASOLINE USE LAST DECADE—CAN 1990 GASOLINE USE LEVELS, THE U.S. GLOBAL WARMING GOAL, BE A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES?

University of Vermont economist Assistant Professor Arthur Woolf “How We're Doing” Burlington Free Press column last week discussed gasoline prices and statewide Vermont consumption features a graph showing gasoline sales down 2000 to 2010. A check with Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) series “Highway Statistics” shows Vermont 2000-2010 leading New England with an 8.0% drop in highway gasoline use.

Vermont joined Maine, -3.4%, and Rhode Island, -2.2%, while New England as a whole increased a fraction of a percent, 0.6%--and if you exclude the only outlier state, New Hampshire at plus 5.9%, then the other five states collectively dropped a fraction, -0.1%.

The 2000-2010 gas consumption plateau mirrors the sharp downtrend in Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel (AVMT) from a 38% growth in the 1980s to 3% 2000-2010 and an almost certain negative for this decade. These two trends—decreasing car travel and gasoline use now helped along with increases efficiency from national vehicle increases in miles-per-gallon standard--truly represents a major turning point for the six state area in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the overall U.S. goals of reaching 1990 levels. Lack of federal initiatives leave leadership to states and localities to undertake efforts. Burlington over a decade ago became one of the first U.S. cities to develop and formally adopt a climate change policy and lead its county (Chittenden) in cooperative and coordinated effort that includes specific initiatives, planning and monitoring.

Why is gasoline so important? First note the Vermont current and future estimates of car travel, gasoline consumption produced by the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VAOT) and contained in “Vermont Comprehensive Energy Plan 2011” (State Energy Plan) prepared by the Vermont Department of Public Service represent, to be charitable, a completely misreading of Vermont and New England trends—the VAOT transportation content indicates continued growth in car travel and gasoline consumption. Regardless of the errors contained in VAOT generated estimates in the State Energy Plan estimates, vehicle transportation in the State and in this region amount to roughly half of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Second there remains no dispute that transportation moved up over the last decades in its percentage of states and region GHGs. Therefore, the decline in gasoline use combined with the almost certain decline in car travel constitutes a remarkable development.

Reduced driving reported by state and New England in this blog last week showed that for the first time—probably since the automobile came on the scene--a New England state, Rhode Island, Annual Vehicle Miles of Travel (AVMT) for a decade, 2000-2010, declined. The sharp downtrend in vehicle travel for New England—38% for the 1980s, 16% for the 1990s and 3% for 2000-2010—suggests a negative -2% to -7% for this decade.

The Vermont 6.4% AVMT growth reported by FHWA for 2000-2010 clearly represents a miscalculation if the generally solid data on gasoline use derived from tax monitoring, an 8% decline, is correctly reported in FHWA reports. (Vermont policy makers need to get a handle on accurate estimates of AVMT, AVMT trends and gasoline consumption trends to realistically analyze transportation trends and amounts of energy use and GHG emissions, and then fairly develop policies for all transportation modes and end users who generate GHGs in all sectors.)

Getting to 1990 GHG Emissions Levels

Can the 1990 gasoline usage levels in highway transportation be reached, and if so, how long might it take? The three New England states with reduced gasoline consumption shed some light on the potential for reaching 1990 consumption levels. Rhode Island leads the three states here needing only a 5.2% reduction in consumption from the 2010 level by 2020 to reach the 1990 consumption level—reasonable in view of the declines 2000-2010 of car travel, 0.9%, and gasolene consumption, 2.2%. It would take a decline in gasoline consumption of 13% for Vermont and 14% for Maine, respectively to reach 1990 consumption levels.

Of course there are many factors affecting gasoline consumption but many of them point in the right direction of potential reduction. Most important, the GHG reductions to 1990 levels in the area of transportation in New England now appear to be within the reach of state and local policy initiatives, particularly if even a modicum of support can be obtained from the federal government. Certain policies like “cap and trade” where those who reduce emissions can trade them with others needing emission allowances promise an economic advantage to New England states with “pollution allowances” to sell when GHG levels dip below the 1990 level target.